Chart will give you better idea what I am trying to mention in that article.
I will update with more charts matching the context and tell you How price action unfolds prior to that strong sell-off after there was rejection at the top.
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I have just recently spend so much time on the research how candles help in spotting of a trend, but I honestly did not find so much to work on or even think about depending on alone candlesticks patterns.
I have recently watched Euro/Dollar daily chart with supply and demand point of view and including candles in my setup as a help but did not find any suitable setup and find out how pinbars fake the price action so many times and stop hunting followed afterwards.
If you rely on candles then we see a rejection at the breach of resistance and we saw a follow through but wait is this setup is telling us the bottom is eyed which is the origin, then why we see so many quite sessions after we see a sell-off signal at the top.
In the chart above, I have recently spot a continuation or pullback entry but lot of traders won't agree with me, because they will look to sell at the retest and failure but it already has done the same as the recent price action unfold. And usually we see sudden change in the volatality and price breaks so many barriers.
Trading like banks and institutions is something that works in the long term and You have to take quick decision or market take quick action while following retests of the previous failed buckets of demand and supply.
These buckets could be placed at ignored demand or even at ignore demand but We should not blindly trust the retest would be Fakeout as it can work otherwise if there is not a quick decisions made by market to complete reverse after retest. Even if it reverse then the complete structure from that low or high would match the criteria for longs and shorts and then any conclusion can be find out.
This chart explain it all but we should be consider few points before taking any decisions which are the S/R flip, whether price broke the last support after breaking the demand and retest it, Or price found new demand before retesting and how price behave after the retest. In the above chart after retesting and consuming the supply price compressed into demand zone and completely faking the swing low and demand below that low which is strong sign of Institution behavior at buying low and when price fake that swing high and supply above then this would surely clear ideas of supply orders are being consumed and there is a chance of buying could been seen at retest.
Most of the time when price found new support and start rising quickly it pause for a while and that areas are very crucial before rally and price could completely fake these areas when it come back to check the frequency of left orders and react if there is buying interest found and that is exactly happen in this scenario.
This chart is complete package of consumption and distribution as we found new area of concern where price found demand and it was again completely ignored and we see some stacked demand when price retest the area and then fakeout that swing low and straight into the last demand and faking it out and give us another perfect opportunity to buy at the recent lower lows and these are the least risk taken in trading but it need practice and complete awareness of the scenario and when specially when price has recent history at those locations.
Hi, trades My last post of Crude Oil does not pick up from the new demand but It will be updated again as We will now look for failure or Fakeout at the top of trend If an opportunity would be provided I would update the blog.
Over-analyzing & trades & there subsequent results will leave most people in a situation of no action, or what we like to call Analysis Paralysis. You’re going to make mistakes in trading as well as life as there would be much more stress if you look to compensate for your earlier losses as a result of anlayzing charts too often.
There is no doubt that professional traders has a lot of edge over novice because there learning capabilities from mistakes, and to never repeat them, as they are more commit to the process and they move ahead with confidence & with much more enthusiasm.
Loosing and winning are part and parcel of trading or any other game. But like other sports or game you can keep loosing & in the end you can still win the game. Traders forget to take into account all the other events a and plays that preceded that moment which also had an effect on the outcome of the game. Just like the aforementioned example, trading successfully is the sum of a lot of small things and decisions taken over a prolonged period of the time that can bring success & overall profitability over a long period of time.
Quality Traders Learn from such mistakes and never mess with charts of setup too much and we as a trader should not look around when things go wrong and still looking for trade setups out of failure trades.
I often look at charts at the end of the day and as the daily trading sums up, I found another setup but It has much more to go as setup is already got rejected from current supply level and still I think has much more to travel than it has done so far.
Its quite a while since I last update my Blog, but there has no price action to follow except recent Crude and Riskier Assets rally and there could be medium or long term bottom be placed, and the biggest clue is recent rise in rally of Crude is the biggest weekly gain since the late 2009 in November.
Big Clue was the recent Canadian Dollar strength across the board and that has to happen when crude and Canadian dollar are strongly negative correlated Currencies and Riskier Assets Like Aussie Dollar and Its counterpart Cousin Kiwi dollar recent rally is quite a big clue as We have not witness such rally in the past six months or so.
Let's begin with Crude Daily Chart, as they said there is clearly strong double bottom that failed and then with a break below that bottom we witness strong rally and that is bigger clue that stop hunting below the low was the reason of the last decline.
Basic Idea of presenting or posting charts like this is to let trader's know that what is true price action which demand or expect reaction. Reaction only come If price structure is designed to let everybody aware of the fact what charts are telling us. Now, simple scenario will be the Price test the New Demand zone and get rejected with strong volumes which will surely mean that there are new cash inflow and they think that crude is very cheap and should be good price to buy as it got rejected from previous levels.
Tags : Supply and Demand Zones, Supply and Demand In Forex Trading, S/R flip zones, Decision Making on Demand Zones, How to trade Ignored Demand Zones.
________________________________________________________________________________________As it clear stated in the Article heading that What are real supply and Demand Zones and How to trade those areas which are either consumed or retest.
But Most of them are interlinked with each whether they are New Demand or supply areas, or whether they are already consumed zones.
I will clear these ideas in the weekend with more articles and with clear and neat examples with explanation and help you in identifying those zones to trade them successfully to know how strong money take valid decisions based on Consumed and Ignored supply and Demand Zones.
Reading price is not a science, But still we have to bring in techniques which is indeed needed to read price action. Price is fractal and there is no fact that is moving sharply down on one time frame and rising on other, It will keep moving in the direction with orders coming in If there is an Institutional Orders are still need to be triggered . But as activity can be spotted on lower time frames, higher time frames should always be supportive otherwise big players can really drive the price to next decision point.
Recent Price action spotted in Eur/jpy on Friday was the real game changer because as I spotted there was some strong synchronization from daily to h1 time frame and price was looking for a trigger to fall which happens just before the market was about to close prior to weekend. That sell-off continue when market open on Monday, and I have try to cover cover all the activity in the chart below as I have emphasis lot on decision making rather than look for trading opportunities in every strong movement.
We have some strong decision making process in h4 charts, the area I marked with grey box is the decision making process but how market approach it was crucial . At first attempt it already fakeout the first decision point and then test it low approach or can say compression and finally made a new Lower Low. The area of concern is the upside rally has two decision points in which One is consider to be a pause after first rally which was tested already and second was that next demand of that DP was ignored on its way down.
Now For me I would surely be watching the price for next couple of days, how price approach that ignored area of if price found something substantial at the lows and If it did then I would surely look at the pressure on buyers when they buy it low, because remember there is always buyers at lows, but we have to see the pressure how they buy or take the price to next decision point to sell it at the higher price which for me is the way institutional orders hit the market.
Tags:Price is Fractal, Price Action Techniques, Eur/jpy Updates, How to read price charts, Intraday trading techniques, Forex Intraday trading, Live Currency tradingHi, First of all I would like to remind about my last update, of Eur/usd where I mentioned that Euro is sitting on weekly demand and pair rallied to 1.1460 and that is why I always it is really worth to taking weekly and high time frames into consideration.
Now, the question arise here whether supply and demand are the same as term use for support and resistance. Answer is simple and straight "No", because support and resistance have no concern for smart players as they use them for take profits and when we see again that those areas hold it could just act at supply or demand and that is why price turned at high reversal points.
I am hereby putting everything together in one chart and with a live example of eur/jpy where you can see that why every support is not support all the time and why we find strong holders sitting at high or low with the break of those small support and resistance areas.
Its about decision points after we have seen some strong areas of demand and supply ignored and Reaction when price again approach those areas. In this case We have some history but that history won't be considered as valid untill we see another approach to test the borken areas. Price made a lower high after strong decision points marked as fresh demand with the blue box but price reacts well before it and compressed to ignored demand (second one). We saw a strong decision point through the ignored demand and price retest with new lower low was strong confirmation of pending sell orders and price reacts immediately and fall to test the demand formed and that is where I would looking to close.
Approach to support and resistance is difference between Pro and Novice traders and when you some history it has to be validated with context and when everything synchronize well with history then we get to conclusion that smart money is present in the market and playing the tricks and we just need to be conscious to get and entry stops and target.Short term reversals can be a part of too much expectations as they are never a part of weekly or monthly chart. A true reversal requires ally or Collective Institutions feel same for the change in environment. Complete Change in Sentiments requires everything to fall in place and it is quite rare.
I would post an article (not a post), but a complete article itself in the coming days where I would try to let trader's know How to scalp currencies. Scalping or Swing Trading are nothing but only techniques that requires practice and experience and all those myths that traders have or wrong assumptions that come to mind would be cleared with article. I would post charts with example and If an entry could be taken or what are the facts that you need to point out when you consider taking scalping or swing trading opportunities.
Starting with Euro dollar which I think is a safest currency and enough to provide you opportunities and clear level for Intraday trading and has good range on a given day. Euro is best to scalp because it is great sign of global sentiment and moves randomly with the global improvements and setbacks and that is why I always prefer Euro and Pound for Intraday trading although I always believe that trading any currency require immense concentration and it keep testing your nerves when it moves volatile but still a chance arrives when it fullfill few assumptions which has to back up by your trading plan
Reading Price Action chart is not a science, but an art and an art to understand in advance when and why a particular area is going to behave and when You know in advance and price react the same way then entry become lot easier.
Supply and demand traders are somewhat stay ahead of what other thinks and Recent Euro dollar example tells you all the story. We saw a strong Euro breakout and also saw a strong demand level which I market in the chart. Demand and supply are more than you can think of but I always mark those which are really helpful. Now, the idea is demand and supply levels are there to be broken but we can really spot out those who are going to hold and chart below is a great example of that.
Although I sight reversal in Euro When it was fail to break above the multi-week high again after long ranges, But still I need further clues to make a statement that Euro has continue its Bullish Momentum and further gains are possible, But I never make prediction till I got a strong evidence of what is about to happen in the coming days or weeks.
Euro is vastly trading currency globally because of 17 Nation currency has lot of trading partners globally and they need Euro to pay for Imports and that is why Euro's exchange rate is sometime so vital for other basket of currency and they will move randomly with Euro, But One should not bet on that and Should have well versed with knowledge and skills to trade Euro or Currency that are positively or negative correlated with the Euro.
Reading Currency Chart is the Important tool to have as Its not only about indicators lagging or advanced, it is about reading Institutions or strong holders movement because they are the one who will move the market up or down wherever they want and specially when you have such big risky event one must be completely sure of taking and entry prior to release because when you take entries with the market movement then most of the time you get trapped and price mostly reverse after strong one sided movement.
This is a special skill that one should have to survive and think of making Forex as full time employment or money making opportunity but reading charts is must to have in your belt to keep growing as a trader.
Focus is now shift from risky events to expecting events and when that was happening when Fed start bond buying programme two years ago we see Euro rally a lot and the reason was simple that Situation in Euro Area was the same But the dollar demand was low because Fed did not want strong dollar as their focus was development and provide banks enough liquidity and safety that stock holders start feeling confidence in investing and feel much secure with their Investments in States.
That Bond buying Programm did wonderfully well and we see stock market is at the all time high's and Not even in US but through the world we have seen a rally since last two years. Now Time has come to provide more safety as Fed has create enough employment opportunities for its public and now we soon shall see rate liftoff and that is why September Meeting minutes are very important for Investors around the globe.
This post is about Sterling or Pound dollar chart In which I am about to mentioned few crucial points of Price Action,First of them is that It traded in within a range since past few weeks and when that low was broken, price hurried up to go above the broken support.
Point of concern now is break above 1.5550 to give us strong indication that bullish momentum is again getting speed and we should look for long entries. But as I said we need a break above that level. To Sum up the things see the h4 chart with possible scenarios and How price unfolds beautifully as expected.
If Price breaks the low of 1.5422 level then it would be a different story altogether as I would look for bearish entries if Price give us opportunity at higher levels to trade and short the pair after breaching the lows .
Price Action always tells us what to do and what not to do and how much you need to have patience and whether or not that patience is paid or leave you much more awaited for your next trade.
These are much important levels for Price action traders, As I mention in my previous posts that Supply and demand levels are the only true levels to trade rather than trusting support and resistance as we have seen so many times, Price breaks a support and rise with more powerful and break the resistance and decline with even more strong pace than rise. But Price Action is king and reading every time frame is very important to give you the entry and exit levels.
I am posting Euro dollar update With the Real time example of last move and what happened when there was talk of Greece exit and Euro rally over 400 pips, after the market open taking all the stops above swings high and low,But I would still be cautious and will not trade this report as I have market few areas on my chat which will be a due coarse of focus for me, and If price went as expected, then we could be in for another ride before the Next Fed Meet.
I don't expect anything from markets as I hardly watch news but I spot the areas of concern on my chart and If I am right then I will possible turn to shorter time frames for entry. Euro is in pause mode since last few weeks, may be Market expecting a lot from data but possibly one clue was given when Employment cost Index data was released past week, which tells that employment rise only give 0.2% of the wages rise and which was much lower when Fed was rising rates a decade or so ago.
Further, I would like to put more light on the fact that Only Price action is what Tells you where price is heading, Trading with lot of indicators never gives you an edge, unless you know what is happening in the market.
I never Claim that I am trading with best of the strategies and Speaking honestly I would like to mention that I only succeed 30% of the time but what about rest 70% of trades, they all are Loosers but my Profitability factor is still 3 times of my average losses.
Have a look at previous Two trades As How accurate you can get sometime depends on how conscious you are about your system
Points you need to considered while trading or building a plan
It is up to strong holders that how to drive the market and how to keep those level interested, that everybody took their piece while we approach an area high low which is breached by strong movement either way, Specially when we trade supply and demand and the movement is so sharp that sometimes we do see few fake retest and value still remain up or below a certain barrier.
Most of you would think what is the reason of showing this type of values on chart, So defining conclusion is that whether we trust any historical chart or not, Most of the patterns give you returns as such only 15% of the candlesticks patterns do offer you strong reversals or complete reversals, So how wise is to test those patterns and continuation signals when the trading week sums up.
But nevertheless Idea is to keep you all updated on How I trade and What approach we should apply in sideways market structure. One should always keep and eye on always watch the decision points and How price behaves when it returns to those decision points and Its really worth it to take a trade with limit orders when price returns to those areas and Price has rallied or lean away from those areas and market is very hesitated visiting those areas in adverse market condition or fear of things to come.
Weekly Chart has lot to travel till it find the last imbalance point |
From today I will post daily engulf price action on Four Major Currency pairs and trade alert will also be posted. You just need to Stay Alert and watch blog from time to time for education as well as free trade alerts.
Eur/usd rally strongly from the base to origin of down move as It was part of Institutional trading that they set predetermined buying and selling areas specially when they use Engulf at Important levels.
During weekend, I will post Eur/usd Chart with possible Reversals with the help Of Engulfing Bars and other possible charts with trade entries and exit.
So keep checking the blog from time to time
The point and topic of discussion today is How we find "Decision Points", in Forex. We all know that this currency market is driven by fear and we have some strong decision points which tells you about the history and price respect those areas and Market use to trap after collection Breakout Buying or selling orders. But the point here is how we can pinpoint those areas where market has taken a final decision and look to rally.
As You have seen in the chart that all the move from low to high are completely synchronized level by level and when you have such clear swings telling you so many things than moves that test previous zone while compressing then there are lot of hints come together when you saw sudden spikes and no such great sell-off.
Trading is all about remaining conscious and really to dig in when that opportunity arrive and that is what Supply and Demand is all about, as it always gives you opportunity to think ahead of the market.
Thinking too far ahead really put a lot of burden on you mind and hence shifting timeframes could be issue for you, But remain focus and calm and checking what Price is doing on different time frames really helps us to pick some food to remain alive and when opportunity offers you to bag bigger then we always have the privilege.