Monday, June 27, 2016

Trading Gold Futures- Updates Fresh Longs after Friday Rally

Forex Trading Strategies- Gold rallies fresh longs amid safe heaven

Gold has rallied up mostly in a single day in past two years and that is understandable when traders are looking for safe heaven after Risk in U.K. and recent price volatility in gbp crosses all around, traders are looking for safe-heaven and reason gold fresh longs can be seen again today and rally to test the multi-year high around 1365 can be tested again.

Gold futures Safe-heaven

Trading Gold Futures amid safe-heaven

Situation will be volatile, and I am expecting no respite till a resoultion is reached out or memorandum about how a debate and discussion will be reach to a decision that on which conditions UK will left EU and any news coming out of camp would certainly push panic in currency traders and price would behave erotically in recent weeks or even months.

Trade Diary For the week 27th June 2016 l Updates of Usd/cad

Building Trading Risk management Strategies

Friday I update the blog about the setup in usd/cad and risk of only 30 pips, brought another test of 1.3086 supply and now I am taking profits around 1.3050 area, and would look for the strength, If price test the area again and would like to see the approach.

Take a look at the post Usd/cad Long

We all know about risk in Currency trading, which drives the market broader way, but only few of them offer opportunities such as this and When it start to test important areas with strength, then it always do offer such low risk trading opportunities, which is well worth to try and make them work for you.

Updated chart of Loonie

Risk management trading

Friday, June 24, 2016

Trading is all about managing your risk Building Risk management strategies

Building Trading Risk management Strategies

Trading any market can be a challenge, and it often test the versatility of a trader but IF you have built up strategies that can help you understand lack of involvement or not too much liquidity or volume behind the moves, then you certainly can ignore various global risks that drives the market sentiment for longer period and that is what happen after "Brexit",Vote where "leave" camp dominates the voting launchpad,but I seriously never expect that much response to those results.

Bring simplicity to the trading and manage your risk properly

I expect the recent failure to close above strong supply is probably is last step towards eating up the remaining sell orders that has been left filled while price makes a large move down and it was the only supply in that range so to react with strongly bullish move price had to react and that is exactly what happened and now after this supply is consumed we can see move towards the earlier high above that 1.3115 area while price left this area and Now because of the low has been tested with even strong demand we can see new buying interest that make a new high above that and that could prove out to be very substantial move as Next area to watch is 1.3279.

Best way to manage any trade

There are numerous trading opportunities available on the table daily and you lookout for high probability trade and after you find one such trade, the next thing you do is to look manage your trade and manage the risk properly. There are not too many traders around who have used Money management as there prime tool to tackle the market and as in result high probability trades turn out to be a losing one.Have you ever try to add new position to your existing profitable one, specially when you trade in strong trending conditions and you think market has offered one pullback and good area to enter the market to make more profit.

Logical way to add another position to your profitable one

IF yes, then how would you mange that trade itself,as I often use to add another position If earlier position has given me 2 times of profit what I use to risk when I enter initially, so that means risking only 1 part of your profit to make more. e.g If you risk one part of your profit to enter at pullback and put the stops at your initial entry and IF in any case you stops get hit, you close that trade at breakeven, but this is the best way to manage your trade of making complete use of your trading plan and logical way to enter and exit the market.

Scaling out your position

Another way to manage your trade is to use "scaling out", which means that you reduce your position size as compare to what you enter initially, but it is not a good idea because it can totally take potential profit as you won't allow so many trending conditions daily and hence make full use when you are given a chance. "Scaling Out" is not a good idea because IF you enter with 2 lots and price moves 100 pips in your favor and you close that trade and again enter with 1 lot with the same stop at the price of your first entry, This seems illogical way to as you there is big chances that market went in your favor (specially when market is trending strongly),another 100 pips and you make much less that your first anticipate and this skills are must to have, If you want to use Money management to cope up with your directional bias.

Tuesday, June 21, 2016

Foerx Strategies-Fibonacci Retracement l Guide to trade fibonacci retracements and expansions

Forex Trading Strategies- Fibonacci Trading guide

In this section, I will explain How to use Fibonacci with combination of RSI to improve you trading results and trade trends most of the time as Fibonacci is a handy tool that let you know when to enter the market and use accurately over time by some legends and further improvement of this method has been seen.

Tools you need to use with Fibonacci Retracements method

Fibonacci is the most widely used term and every Forex trader new or experience is familiar with the term. Fibonacci is the tool that really can help you find true trends, pullbacks or Retracement and signal continuation of the larger trend.

Fibonacci retracement and expansions are the handy tool for entry and targets

We have seen people use fibonacci in elliott wave, harmonic trading and chart patterns for intraday and swing trading. But you need to have complete knowledge of swings on higher time frames as mostly fibonacci is used for reversal and one can really chase the trade too far If one has not experienced enough to know about Risk management and trading mechanical systems.

fibonacci Trading

Here you see 5 minute chart of nzd dollar where price is strongly in uptrend after retracing and you just need to put RSI of (14 period) and it should be above 50 which is neutrality period for traders and look for 5 minute chart and find a swing that is atleast 40 pips and mark this area as A, and Now you just need to find out If price retrace to 61.8% fibonacci and mark this area as point B,and If price rejects from there and close above 78.6% fibonacci which is point C which is our entry price and don't remember to put your stops and it should be place just few pips below 23.6% and in this case Entry price was at 0.7149 and stops were placed just below 0.7116 risking just 33 pips and there is another rule for your target.

It clearly upto you If you look to go 1:3 risk reward or whatever ratio you like, but If you want to stay in the trend for longer periods the You just need to find another strong swings of 40 pips and when you find and price start to retrace to 61.8% fibo and rejects from there you can simply put your stops just few pips below 23.6% and hence locking the initial profit and look to do the same and this is such a powerful system that If trend is too strong you would ride that trend for 2-3 days with risking not too many and locking your risk just on the day you enter.

Power of fibonacci trading Updated Chart nzd/usd

Our initial entry was around 0.7148 and stop was placed around 0.7115 so we risk 33 pips to get atleast same amount of pips in our favor.

We were given second entry at 0.7172 and then we luckily get our stops around 0.7148 which was our first entry price and that give us confidence of smart money involvement and levels at 5 minute chart.

Third entry was offered around 0.7232 and that time our stop and trailing stop is around 0.7217 and here we can look to book profits or can risk what we afford to risk earlier which was 32 pips and because of the fact swings are so strong it is risk well worth taking and see if we can take four time reward which is very rare on intraday trading chart.

If you would have risked 32 pips initially and set to breakeven at first swing at 0.7148, and now you can look to trail your profits around 0.7217 and trade the trend If you can risk 32 pips more to gain more otherwise you would have already got 100 pips target which is 1:3 risk reward and that is forex money management is all about and you just can't just let an entry go buy when you look to ride most of the trend.

Let's repeat the entry and exit system once again.

1. You should look for strong trends where Daily RSI should be in positive slope up or down.

2. look for 5 minute chart and look for strong spike of 40-45 pips in the direction of daily trend.

3. look for first retracement to 61.8% and then look for price to close above 78.6% fibonacci and put the stops few pips below 23.6%.

4. Exit only when you find a strong spike simply retraced below 23.6%. IF you get second swing similar to first one and that repeat the clause look to set price at breakeven .

5. When you get Third entry as I show in the above chart then you can look to book partial or full profit as you should not show greed and profit is alteast 1:3 when you enter first.

Saturday, June 18, 2016

Currency Outlook For the week June 20th l Trading Brexit Referendum

Fear of Brexit driving pound into extreme levels of trading

It has been really quite a rally since I posted the chart of gbp/usd and it has manage to engulf the decision point and supply above around the 1.4750-60 area is not far away and If price manage to react from here and ignore this decision point completely then you can certainly look out for longs around the 1.4650 area, if price tests this area with purpose. Chart below is prime example that only price decide whether there is supply or demand and when it approaches and rally is too strong, we should be aware of such price patterns that don't care strong levels but look for reaction only when price manage to test when there is no subsequent demand or supply area left on the opposite side.

Alternative scenario of Gbp/usd if bias turns bullish from here

Forex Reversals

This scenario was not favored at all but we have to respect the sentiment and if Brexit referendum failed to reach any decision and Britain manage to stay in Eurozone (Which I think is the best outcome for global market), then pound sentiment will again turn strongly bullish but volatility will remain subdued and price will rally for sure. Just another thought process and waiting game to see how price behave at new high or higher low If demand remain protected.

Monday, June 13, 2016

Fear of Brexit driving Pound into extreme levels of trading

Fear of Brexit driving pound into extreme levels of trading

We all have seen another volatile week for gbp/usd, reason being the news out of Britain Area regarding "Brexit" driving traders in fear of missing piece of puzzles, and hence some strong buy and sell orders but for me, its always been discipline and most crucial traded levels of rejection and one I have my eye on right now is crucial 1.4650 area, and that has been the point of focus for me right now .

Pound overall picture from Technical point of View

Brexit trading volatility

We have seen some strong rejection from highest levels and this can be another fakeout of demand and If we see some rejection in the box above in blue we can see massive selling at failure at supply levels, but we have to be patience and we have to wait for the sellers take position again from these levels as we have flipped again into the confluence of previous bull rally and rally to 1.4320 area, seems bulls hold the position again or we can see another phase of distribution around the levels I mention in the chart.

Focus has been shift to the two volatile events in the coming days and one of them is this week FOMC minutes, which has been the driver of US dollar Index Future at large and any statement made or failed to reach the set targets of inflation or employment numbers will give USD bears enough chance to drive the price lower and this can be once again the most favored scenario, but we will have to wait for the board members to justify their reason to hike or not to hike and this can really be volatile if there is no proof of another hike in coming months as employment numbers were very disappointed this month.

us dollar index

Currency Updates Buy Euro on Dips

It has been volatile week for Yen Crosses and fair risk after comments from Yen officials that they don't need further stimulus and happy with the recent recovery and these comments seen decent Yen appreciation, but focus is now shift on next week big Brexit referendum which will decide the fate of Britain residents, that whether they want to stay in Europe or would like to exit and that can really create panic and moves can go either way, so be patient and wait the storm to settle and it would be better If you don't schedule any trading activity during the next week because of uncertainty.

How to Trade Forex mean Reversals with logic and Reward

Tuesday, June 07, 2016

Trade Alerts

Forex Trading Strategies- Chart Reading step by Step

Forex Technical Update-Live Trade Gbp/usd 06 June 2016

Pair has managed to hold the gains after huge rally downwards to start of the week, but has show strength and focus is now shifted towards the high of 1.4750-60 area, I would wait for pullbacks towards 1.4450-60 for any retracement entry. Check the post and check the trading levels.

Live Trade Update-- Aud/jpy 05th June 2016

long entry was recommended around 79.55 levels and target was set around 80.67, Pair has manage to reach 80.40 and waiting for 80.67 first target to be achieved soon and from there new update would be posted.

Forex trading strategies-Fresh Usd/longs

Trade was recommended earlier after rejection of 1.2892, and idea was immediate rejection from strong supply in to demand and rejection offers very low risk reward opportunity and that is the reason I buy it around 1.2920 and took profit at 1.3050 when market rejects once again from the same area on Monday. Trade Update usd/cad

Forex Techncial Analysis Gbp/usd l Trade Alerts

Forex Trading Strategies- Chart Reading step by Step

Pound has manage to fake the previous price Action around 1.4356 and manage to breach the high of post NFP payroll data. Focus is now shift towards base of the current pause in rally around 1.4440 and trade alert section will be updated If we find any buy stops triggered at pullbacks.

Monday, June 06, 2016

Australian dollar trading RBA interest Rate Decison l Bullish outlook

Forex Trading Strategies- Chart Reading step by Step

Austalian dollar trading waiting for Bank official to meet and decide the future of Australian Economy, its GDP forecast, bank repo rate, lending rate and deposit rate and it is this is one of the major release that Australian dollar react to. After Friday bull rally, price action in all the Aussie pairs is waiting for banks to hold the cash and lending rate to the record low and maintain a dovish outlook overall as there is some signs of global recovery has been seen in China and other global trading partners.

Technical Analysis of all the Aussie Crosses

As I mention in my previous article, you must be aware of all the recent moves and collect those pieces to be able to know the future reaction of price and it will help you decide when to enter with lower risk and get the maximum reward and remain in trade for longer periods to make full use of risk reward and make profit upto the maximum or close to maximum potential.


Aud/jpy found support just below the previous low

Price Found support around 78.00 just below the previous low and faking out the previous swing low and faking out the strong demand or confluence level of the previous rally which makes a new high, I would like to remain in trade and watch for the next mention target and it is breached i would look for the new high just above the previous swing high.

Usd index future update, Interest rate decision trading methods

Australian dollar outlook bullish ahead of RBA rate decision

Outlook is positive for more gains and outlook is still quite bullish But adjusting of large orders can be seen and rally towards the low of 0.7298 cannot be ruled out and from there we can see rally continue towards 0.7450-80 area, which is good area to take profits and put stops under 0.7250 would offer good risk reward potential

Pair Australian Dollar Aud/usd
Entry buy stop at 0.7300
Stops @0.7240
First TG is today high around 0.7380
Second Target is 0.7460
Risk Reward 1/3.

Risk--High
Two things that favors our entry and one of them is we are not entering at market levels and so in bullish market we have to play the waiting game and look for potential large orders for the rally to catch enough sell orders and our stops are placed such as to give trade some room to breathe after the market settles down and second risk is not on as we have not seen big rallies up or down in world indices, so play safe is always recommended and entry and exit level rules are very strict.

Saturday, June 04, 2016

Forex Technical Analysis l How to read a currency Chart

Forex Trading Strategies- Chart Reading step by Step

Forex Technical Analysis is complete art in itself and You don't need to be Rocket scientist to read a Currency chart and Your technical knowledge will remain incomplete if you don't know Who hold the strong side on the chart and who is more likely to gain control in future. That market is most sentiment oriented which can turn its hands any time and it would take a session or two for a strong bull or bear trend will completely reverse, so it means you have to be cautious and can take all the time you need to access and implement what you learn in all those months or even years you spend

Forex Technical trading is all about who holds the edge, and if you want to compete with the best in the business, you need to be well versed with all the tools and need to stay ahead of the market

Chart reading or knowledge of complete Price Action is must and your decision making should be based only on levels and time spend near those levels which makes those levels even stronger when they are visit. Market always use to behave near those strong levels even for some spikes, which can be the result of consumed orders or strong pinbars which tell us the strength of the level again.

Step to step Technical Analysis

Chart above Canadian dollar/japanese yen without any explanation will put you in complete disarray what is happening but If I put some text on the same chart the you will have some idea why it is important to read every chart and understands what it is trying to tell and then plan your trading activity. Technical analysis should be easy to read and should only be based on price and its complete supply and demand structure, and time put behind such knowledge always give you an edge above others who use indicators, trendlines, fibo and Chart patterns like Head & shoulders, cup and handle etc.

Also read:--- How I manage to pick bottom in S&P--S&P Technical Analysis

Forex Technical Analysis--Step by Step Chart Reading

Above Chart tells the different story altogether,because every move is cleared in this chart and if you find such decisions been made on the chart the Forex Technical Analysis is logical otherwise they are just support and resistance areas which would surely be one or other way of failure.

If you see the above chart we have supply from where price fell a fair way away and then it found demand and compressed(cp) to supply faking it out and then this CP broke into demand and again faking it out and then rally to new highs which was another fakeout and price fall again.

While price fall of that new high it ignore the demand on its way down,creating new supply and price again found new demand and that first visit to supply (ignore demand become supply)was rejected and price then compressed to newly formed demand faking it out and went quickly for the second visit to supply and when it again went to the demand level which was consumed it just give false pinbar which tells that there was spike due to unfilled order and that unfilled orders now got consumed and price is ready to fall to the next demand level or decision making.

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