Role of Candlesticks In Overall Trend Prediction

Hi Traders,

Its being a busy week overall as We got some real setbacks for Euro Bulls, FOMC Tone was more of the same But ECB President Draghi really seems worried and drag Euro down once again, But thats not important Because I always back my Charts to see overall position of Strong holders who are most likely to drive the price.

Roll of Candlesticks in Overall Trend of Eur/usd chart

It was clear from the example above that most of the time in broader trend we have ranges and direction is not clear but overall bearish trend is good enough to pick entries from smaller time frames. Chart above is hourly chart and we have some ranges since last couple of days and price maintain a support where retail traders look to enter few times and scalp the market for few pips, but those who use careless approach in "Forex Market", then he or she has to pay at some time sooner or later and that was one of those days where strong money dominate and Euro Crash close to 1.10% decline which has not happened since quite a while.

Was strong holders were Driving the price up

Example above truly demonstrates the logic of Currency trading where we can say that IF that breakout to the upside was not result of Panic then why market liquidate immediately and although market react immediately next day but that has to be a part of some event or price usually gravitates to the high but breach of high after few attempts was not possible and hence market needs sometime to react and that reaction come prior to release of a Crucial event and all we need was to wait for breakouts and use logic if that was a pullback entry offered at the top of the range.
Rule of the thumb is never buy at the upside breakout and never sell at the downside breakout but that does not clear the fact that you always look to pick tops and bottoms but overall logic has something to do here where price made few attempts earlier to breach the top and was in sideways market and Overall picture was bearish.

Take a look at Usd/chf Chart which is Negatively Correlated With Euro

Here I have posted a chart of usd/chf which is negatively correlated and that chart I post on "Friday" as well, where I mention Value Migrates immediately and there was no stopping afterwards and If you watch at the bottom that if price was reversing then why it did not move exotically against the overall trend, which is in itself a great clue that market don't want to move away from higher prices and consolidate after every sell off and suddenly we see some buying interest and market try to breakout with early sign of buying which is exactly opposite of the charts I posted above of Eurodollar.

You still think Candlesticks plays any role in predicting the trend.

I am not denying the fact that candlesticks are important and they represents the activity of traders but If you do want to utilize it then use it with the overall picture and Use it on higher time frames where it truly signifies the overall picture and who remain in control for a particular week or day.

Concept of Advertising Mechanism

I hereby make this post to let everybody know How price use to trap traders with Spikes that fadeout and When ever price in strong trends fade away It use to get Rejected by Market and Lower prices are not accepted in any case.
Price Concept is all about "Advertising Mechanism", And When we really want to trade good throughout then we must understand the simple logic and If spike got fade out quickly, we should immediately leave the market and think of better price if there is any pullback offered after spike.
The chart I posted here of Usd/chf in which we have seen that price in very strong trend recently on H4 and Daily chart and On H1 chart which I think is the best way for swing as well as Intraday Traders to set the lowest stops possible, got rejected so many times from the low and When you watch the price closely then You will see that at every low Price founds strong buyers and at this time I will look to see the follow-through and would like to see price try to fade out the Price Action again and Traders got trapped by this behavior and try cover and We will see price got some new buyers and test the new high or even make a new high.

How to trade Ranges with Momentum Shift

Momentum Shift in Australian dollar Once Again

I have explained so many times on blog that I always focus on strong trends pullbacks specially when few spikes have been faded and don't have any follow-through. I have created a post On "How to trade Ranges With Shift in Momentum".

In the above Chart I have noticed that price of Australian Dollar is in strong trend followed by Few ranges and then spikes up and down and When most of the time we see this type of behavior in strong Downtrend then Most of the time market hesitates to buy in the "Weak" Market or When they are expecting a favor from banks too earlier than It is scheduled and When they don't get anything they expect price often pick up after breakouts and then after attempt failed it went in range and then again Breakouts often spike and get out of the range to put stops and that is why I have created such posts where we can find out what is happening and what to expect in such crucial time.
I would watching a failure at this area of range for few sessions and then If we again see shift in Momentum, then I would short and advice everybody here to remain in short positions ahead of 0.8675.

Forex Price Action l Value migration supply and demand

Gbp/jpy Rise to Multi-year high after Minor correction

Gbp/jpy Value Migration

As I always mentioned in my blog, Our primary focus should be on strong trends and we should always look for value Migration and Today we have seen such behavior and I would expect price to make a new Multi-year high in the pair Gbp/jpy

When we see strong trend followed by correction then We should always look for pullback only when price has not managed to liquidate too much and when we see spikes in such behavior and pause in trend, then we should always look for Value to migrate higher soon.

Value Migration should be a quick spike and there should not any hesitation in the market and value should keep rising with price.
Idea should always be to remain conscious and wait for such opportunities and keep buying on the day on any pullback as "Strong Money" Will keep buying and keep moving the price higher because it is natural in such strong trends and I have seen strong movement after "Value Migrates" followed by strong demand in Currency Pair.

Candlesticks Patterns Matching the Context

Hi, traders.

In this post I’ve decided to emphasis more on Patterns and Overall context, that I use in my own trading, and that may be useful for you as well. In other words, what do we do step by step when we come to the market with the intention to find a good trade location?

We go top-down, from analysis of bigger time-frames to lower time-frames and finally, tick-by-tick action. Of course, our thinking in calm environment, when we do our homework, is different from thinking when we are acting at the «heat of the moment». But prepared trader has more odds of making good decision rather than unprepared one. The only group of traders that can make absolutely no preparation, are pure scalpers. But now there really a few pure successful scalpers in the world – this trading style has become very tough with the popularity of mechanical trading, HFT algorithms.

But what about if we spot Institutional Activity And we find candles that helps us spotting where stops are placed and we get the demand level protected when Price hit that particular area, specially when candles already has trapped traders.

It is very hard to find such setups but failures are in itself a strong clue of what strong buyers or sellers might be eyeing in such scenarios.

Australian Dollar Trade Update

Trade, I took on Friday of Australian dollar is a short example when you need to react when such scenario happen when we have already seen a demand and Price test the area and even strong buyers enter the market.

First of all, we saw a candlesticks trap a failure attempt by sellers when new high is made and then we see "Three Inside Up" Pattern which tells us that strong buyers are still there in the market.

But Often this type of patterns don't succeed but if you see price was accumulating and every down move found buyers few times and then finally when price test the area with another bearish pattern, Demand was stronger than earlier and may continue when market open or even better price would be offer to buy if price test the area again

Patterns spotted in Australian dollar l Intaday Price Action

As I have mentioned in my previous post that Forex Trading is all about consciousness and timing and when You don't opt of any Forex Signals site and believe in yourself then such entry will come in routine.

Basic concept of "Market Profile" is to facilitate trading and they will do it with buying at downside moves and when You see such behavior in already "Bullish" trend, then you just need consciousness and timing and that is what "Currency or Stock Trading", is all about.

Are they really buying at low levels

If you closely watch the above mentioned chart then you will see market has breakout from a level and maintained a level above and whenever you see any type of "selling", then buying at low levels again push the price above and last buying was some serious attempt after false breakout of the range to the downside.

Trading is not all about seeing the price to move higher or lower in coming week, month or quarter, trading is about opportunities offered on short or long term and versatile traders know every type of market and they willing to accept what is being offered.

Hourly scalping startegy

I will update the blog with the charts that can be used to Scalp, Using hourly chart and will mention guidelines that are necessary to be taken in mind while using that Strategy accurately.

I have lost access to my server of my broker and that is why I am using online resources to get an idea how we can use hourly chart to scalp and make a living out of "Curreny Trading".

How to spot reversal in strong trends

This post title might look weird to some traders, But Is there anything that can helps us found reversals in Strong bullish Momentum Pairs. Answer is most of the time It does not work and Its not easy as We always being taught that trend is you friend and We should often look for pullback entries in such strong trends.

But what has gone us should come down in any way whether it is long term correction or complete Reversal

Let's take an example

Eur/cad reversal after First Attempt Failed

Chart mentioned here is Eur/cad chart and pair was in strong trend untill first attempt after low fades out and It completely trap traders with a range Breakout with Strong Bullish, at the top of the range. But we does need a clearer view that whether it is reversal, because most of the time price does take time to continue, But here in this chart things are totally different, as price does reverse slowly after this first attempt to continue and the second mentioned candle which test the top of the range and reverse totally. And On daily time frames it does take huge stops to catch a reversal.

But If you count the low of first attempt to reverse the price where low is 1.4257 which is exactly 800 pips difference from the first attempt whose high is about 1.5257. What more interesting is the fact that the second strong attempt from low failed at 1.4257 and that is where current daily supply is lying. Rest of the things have been thoroughly explained on the chart and I would really be more than happy to clear each and every point that is necessary to spot a reversal as I already have.

Forex Price Action Shift in Value

HI Traders !

Its been quite a while since I have updated the Education Section of Trading But then I did find any setup even though there was strong movement in Currency Market. As you know, I never rush in to my trade seeing strong up-down movements, As I always back up my strengths and fade-off any quick breakouts when odds don't favor.

Traders usually use Candlesticks to Improve their trading skills, But for me Its not candles, But it is Consciousness and timing that always keep you ahead of Market. As a trader, we need to develop such techniques that always keep you ahead and No Indicator or Oscillator help you in this process, Even though they are helpful when other factors do hint or clue of change in momentum or even when reversal is happening.

Traders should know where Value Shifts Immediately

Most of traders, who watch my blog in Routine, then they are aware of how I use value to see what is happening when market maintain a level and traders went against the strong money. In above mentioned chart Value shifts so many times during the past few days but better is to wait and watch as value breaks out from here again to the upside and trend resume and We can easily get a pullback entry

Euro reversal Was On the cards

When small traders are very optimistic about possible growth, they bring a lot of fragile positions to the marketplace. Not surprisingly, market can liquidate (go down) very quickly if something happens. And market has liquidated after news release on Eur/cad – rapid movement to the downside was result of massive liquidation.

Forex Trading is "speculative business" And those who know that try to accept every little opportunity that comes their way, No matter whether it is short term or long term. But those who totally speculate on the basis of "Big release", that really has long term impact on the price of a particular pair, them one might called it gambling.

I have different point of view of accessing chart, One is Overall trend, release and logic behind the movement, And I always back up my decisions and never try to rush before the release because Its not us who drives the price, Its strong money who have huge lots which come and hit the market one after one and final decision is always reserve by those movers.

We did saw large movement in the price of Euro crosses and the one that I picked up today is eur/cad, And market set the tone for that reversal as you have seen in the above mentioned chart that market creates a scenario that "Liquidation", was about to arrive at any time after strong reversal and bullish momentum was not gathering any force and finally after we see final pattern breakout, Market was ready to go berserk.

Supply and demand Intraday updates Candlesticks

Habits that traders need to prevent

Hi traders! Successful trading is often not about unique trading system, it’s about doing certain things over and over again, or I would rather say – not doing them. Many beginner traders often do the same mistakes over and over again and if you would simply avoid what they do (or even do the opposite), you would get an edge on the market, Because this market is not about buying and selling in hurries or react according to market volatility.

I created my own TOP-3 list, you can add some more in commentaries to this post. I haven't uncluded money managent here, just chart patterns (market behavior) that traders fail to read properly (Because pattern do tend to trade with Historical Charts)

Selling «expensive» and buying «cheap»

Most popular terms used in the "trading" is «buying bottoms» and «selling tops». When price suddenly breaks out from some range (say, to the upside) and starts to move rapidly, most traders will sell against this rally. That’s an instinct as Indicators told you (As Most of them react after trend is matured or trend is strong). If we’ve seen before Low volatility and absence of significant price Behavior to whatever side, we tend to deny breakout, we treat to new prices as «unfair» and rush to open a trade. Why in this case most traders are in hurry? They thing that current price action won’t long last and price will quickly drop back to the previous trading range.

Let's take a look at Example

It has rallied heavily, and believe me – there were many traders caught in short positions. Price has finally moved back to day opening, but I’m not sure that any short-sellers could benefit from that movement. You can’t enter short position (or long position, any position) if you don’t know your risk, if you are unable to calculate or estimate it. You can, of course, but it won’t be low risk trade, your risk will not be defined (don’t tell me that you know your risk because you have your stop-loss)

So, in most cases shorting against such rally can be only reasonable when market is overbought and ready to liquidate to the downside. Such situations are pretty rare and this topic goes beyond our post.

To avoid catching tops and bottoms, I recommend to switch between timeframes from time to time. What is cheap for one timeframe trader, may be expensive for other timeframe trader.