Monday, December 30, 2019

Crude Oil future. final buyer Exhaustion

Crude Oil Future Technicals Hi, Readers

First of all, I would like to give you advance wishes for New year & wish that new year fullfill all the dreams you ever wished.

Usually, I don't trade in low liquidation scenarios amid New year & Christmas holidays. But I always Like to take a look at Crude oil chart usually once a day. Today, I found classic example of Crude oil future which states the buyer's exhaustion & finally engulfed and start of a cycle of seller domination.



I would recommend shorting Crude Oil around 61.95 level with short just above the QM zone which is 62.07 & target is the low of session which is around 61.09 & then 60.63


Gbp/cad testing 1.7210 level

I'll discuss the chart bit later ! Hope you all have prosperous new year filled with Joy, Happiness & lots of profit ! Wishes for all of you !

Taking profit on my gbp/cad shorts


As I mentioned in my post above about the short entry on gbp/cad, around 1.7215 area, So an update was due & today I am taking profits on shorts. For those who did not had a look at the chart, I am updating the chart here again.



I took the profits on gbp/cad too early but that is part of the trading, when you see a level is providing you a 4 to 5 time Reward of the Initial Risk, then You can exit or can trail your entry. As a scalp, it is a good reward but in case you go to higher timeframes, then You can see type of demand in clusters below & that is the only reason why I took profit on gbp/cad trade.

Crude is about to confirm the top on higher time frame & will collapse soon


I've been a long time bearish on WTI crude oil & reason being the recent global slow down, with Gold & Silver prices are at near five year high, I would surely be looking for crude oil to test the crucial 64.56 area, before it collapse. If a top has already been in place, then I would be looking to short it with a break below daily level of $60/barrel. I think that will offer a good risk reward with stops just above 61.55 area and target should be $50.65 which is the recent swing low on weekly chart.

If somehow we manage to break above $64.56/barrel, then It will nullify the bearish run & test of $70.00 barrel would be on cards, but I would still maintain my outlook of bearish on Crude & Brent Oil. Recent Tension in Gulf over death of Solemiani & threats by Iran Military officials to U.S, would really put lot of pressure on Crude Oil & pressure in trading means new opportunities.

I would update my outlook on WTI after the market opens today .

Rising Tension between United States & Iran create panic between Investors and traders


I would like to update you about the recent situation in Iran & U.S after U.S drone Attack killed Military official in Iran. Immediately after the death of the army official, Iran has threatens or warned U.S of the consequences. Market has already shaking here and there for the fight for Safe-heaven & in any case if there is more damage been done, then Gold & Silver will probably the first ones to create demand in the market and I'll also recommend looking for opportunities in both Gold and silver as I'm already seeing much higher level in both the Risk-heaven assets.


Beside, gold & Silver , WTI & Brent crude has already made new 2 years high & I would surely look to look at the scenario specially in WTI crude as I've seen some strong manipulation and eyeing much lower level after tension eased out. It has already happened few months back when Saudi's Oil refineries were attacked & we soon witness a strong sell-off immediately followed the news.



Crude oil is eyeing strong supply zone around 64.57 area, and I would like to see a retest of 60.50 level & if that happens, provided the scenario we are in, I would look to short surely around 65.40 with stops around 65.80 & Target would be first 57.40 & much much lower level would be seen in the coming weeks and even months. I

We already witness a strong fakeout after Saudis attack & that fakeout has happened because there are strong orders after supply capped the upside & Now, if there is panic in the market, then stop hunting would be seen. Practically, we can see market rarely cares for such things as whatever happens, price is going to rally, we just need to stay aside and watch levels to play and when it is our turn, which I think would be soon on cards, then we should step in with protective stops and good reward .



Crude oil Future crash After Trump speech

I update the trade before it had happened. Check the post above where I mentioned shorting crude around 65.40 level & high was around 65.56 area, & now it has reached the first target 60.12 & now I would watch a break below 57.80 to add one more lot.

Sunday, December 22, 2019

How to analyze stop Hunting zone when a strong zone is already Engulfed

Stop Hunting zone </head> Hi Readers,

In this post I would like to draw you attention towards Engulfing price action and stop hunting after an area is engulf.

Price Action usually depend on few puzzles. First of them is Flag limit of a zone & second is price Action zone & whole the Price action evolves between these two zones. When an area is engulf, then we should set our focus to another important flag of the zone which is FL or even stop hunting zone. Usually, these areas are MPL zones or you can say Maximum Pain level when we have an area which is already given away (Strong support or resistance) & then price move backs to the zone and after Faking out the zone, there is usually significant Drop or Rise is seen.

Our focus should be on the reaction of the price, when Price again visit that area. Price usually visit that area with strong collection of orders. It could be these of areas & location few times. Price can compress to that zone or even price can create Stop hunting zone. Best way to spot those zones is usually stop hunting.

Stop Hunting process usually depends on way wyckoff explain the sign of strength or weakness

Wycoff usually spot end of trend with strong buying or even selling Climax and then accumulation & then another trend starts which can be either testing the distribution zone above or even with markup zone, when we have new trend in sight. But our focus is on testing the distribution zone again. I'll create a video explaining the chart with engulf and then test of area with conviction.

Tuesday, December 17, 2019

State bank of India stock NSE entering price Action zones around 337

India trading stocks state bank of india technicals </head>

You people must have been surprise by the blog title. As I never recommend trading stocks or derivatives. But due to numerous mails & comments, I'm hereby uploading the chart of Indian Stock State Bank of India.

Price is stalling ahead of 337 resistance area which is also a part of rejection of price action zone. If price manage to hold 326 area, then I would recommend shorting around 337.51 with stops around 339.50 & First target would be 317 & Second target would be 308 zone market with red rectangle.


Price Action Reacting the previous Manipulation zone which should act as bulk buying orders

As I have clearly stated in my previous articles that when you trade a swapping flag, then there should be a flag just below the engulf zone which should play the manipulation game & that chart is a perfect example.

More on that will be updated soon. Stay tuned.

Monday, December 09, 2019

Pound Trade levels before Great Bretain Election Results l Definitely Risk-on

Flag orders swapping flag limits supply and demand Despite of continuous reports on failure of deal in England but still I expect this upcoming election results will give us finally what market wants as deadline of 31-12-2019 is approaching very fast. Now or never sort of approach should weigh on investors and never seen volatility would be seen. You won't get any chance of taking a trade in pound dollar, so If you've planned to enter earlier to release, then I would suggest you to get out of situation and wait for 24 hours before you enter again.

For me, Price is strongly approaching 1.3760 area which is clear indication of some correction. We earlier have buyer swings which were hold twice above this level and finally we break out lower. Now as price is approaching strongly to the level I would expect market would show some caution ahead of 1.3190-3230 barrier and we can see a small correction to 1.3000 & then before we approach 12th December we can see a small range or spikes followed by correction whenever there are rumours or any news relating to the results.

All the Gbp Pairs would have larger spread ahead of Brexit

Most exotic currencies in Major pairs are gbp/Aud & Gbp/nzd & I have never recommended trading these pairs with small trading accounts or unless we have a small risk trade. These two pairs already have a spread of 4 and 5 points but due to Bretain Voting results we can surely see expansion of spread to atleast 10-12 points or even more. So, trading in these two pairs is definitely not recommended.

Pound Chart & Trading levels ahead of Voting Result

Chart below truly stating that we have couple of Accumulation and distribution areas & finally we are getting out of one and approaching next level which is already a upthrust level on weekely just above 1.3650 & When Price is going through these hurdles, already showing sign of real weakness but as we have strong bullish flag breakout, I expect those orders above that flag are waiting to be clicked & test of that level would add more weight when we visit that 1.3650-90 area again.


Euro gbp facing Price Action zone around 0.8515 before Brexit vote results

I would follow up with the chart. Euro gbp has trying to stop hunt stops ahead of vote results. Stops should be place around 0.8530 entry should be around 0.8515& Target 0.8430-05 area.


I would advice you all to manage your risk and tighten your stops as possible as you can. Risky events can pave away the way for new downtrend but I would recommending closing with first target with two entries and trail the second one at breakeven when First Target is met.

Result of trade Eur/gbp after exit polls

The chart below illustrates that we miss the trade by mere 9 pips and move was so devastating that it breach through the support and hit all targets and through 0.8300.


Thing to look out at this time is approach. Approach to broken support at m30 was the real factor that we need to dig into. I'll prepare a video soon & will publish my idea why it went down from that SBR (Support becomes Resistance ) & about market manipulation.

By Market manipulation, I mean to say that was the market aware of the exit polls ?

Do the know the results & set orders prior to release and what approach we should follow before these type of big events. All these doubts comes to mind when I was novice & decided to buy the broken support and retest areas to get trapped and leave the trade open before the big events & blow my Accounts

Seriously, that has happened to me hundred of times. Whether it was Greece default, Britain referendum, Scotland referendum etc. I loose my account so many times, but this time I missed the Jackpot trade & believe me I'm not talking about small lots. But anyway, this has been story & I hope those who stay at blog and spend time on the blog understands the value of such events. I'm still quite confident that we will soon get into strong Euro dollar swings which is targeting atleast 1.1800 will leave a trade on table next week.

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