Price Reflects Everything

"Technical analysis tells us that "price reflects everything".

Is it right or not? In previous post I've shown moving average indicator as an example of how one can use price-value approach in trading. But this is just example, in reality, simple MA can't show you where value is. Let's say, MA calculates 35 closing prices (35 parameter). Do you think that every price is equal here? Area located at higher prices is more significant for the market because it attracts more volumes (aggressiveness).

So in fact weight of higher prices in calculation formula should be increased if we want to know where value is.

What am I trying to say?

Price can't reflect everything because not every price level is equally important for the market and that is why I firmly believe that support and resistance are temporary profit taking areas and does not reflect a trade location everytime.

The missing piece is time and volume

(we don't have volumes on Forex - tick volumes is not what we need, so we can make conclusions about volumes from price action - was it aggressive or not?)

If you will refer to price as to advertising mechanism, it would be much easier to understand what's going on on the market.

I will quote great trader and coach, Jim Dalton, that teaches his students in approach of auction market principles:

Price advertises opportunity

Time regulates this opportunity

Volume measures success or failure of this opportunity.

Eur/jpy technical Update.

Technical update of eur/jpy Intraday chart

What are the symptoms of a mature trend and by "mature trend" ,I means there is a chance of reversal to test the support again. We have seen breakout and price manage to hold high prices and then rapid moves. If you watch the chart closely then you always look for logic and what is the "Context".

For me, I have spotted out strong downside rally after the top with overall trend is bearish with correctional bottom (When price had a downside rally and spike again and test the low of prior bottom with a spike then it is know as correctional bottom)

Spike from that correctional bottom is strong and its not one it had two-three spikes and when we have strong and usually when we have breakout and such strong trend, then price use to "Gravitate" towards the high.

"Test" of high usually don't always means that it has to test the high as all the attempts had failed and price makes a new low and attempt to rise of that low now is not strong and no follow through

Price is ready to rally again to make a new low below its recent one and that would be strong rally and it could be another strong bullish so no harm in risking 20-30 pips (Very huge risk as I never risk more than 10-15 pips ) but still swing trading opportunity can really takes the momentum to strong bearish trend.

Chart of eur/jpy below tells what is Real "Context"

Intraday technical update of eur/cad

Technical opportunity with breakout faded out and momentum arrives again

Below I have posted the trade on basis of balance market . Pair is already in strong swing and exact trade location was within the rotation center and "Violation" of such rotation center give us an opportunity. That type of market gives us hints before desperation is shown and we indeed need to cover at first attempt. But the rise was on the cards with second attempt with successful test and momentum coming in again.

The chart tell us that if momentum faded out again then we probably would have lost minimum on that trade as it was high probability trade as pair was in uptrend.

Take a look at eur/cad chart below And for reference check my earlier post

Apple rally to the upside has just started !

514.00 area hold the support and we finally got a break above 549.00

Check my earlier APPLE Post here. !! Although it look to rally towards the downside but still it was quite passive and no immediate rally and market hold the floor and past two to three day activity had follow-through and yesterday downside rally was a part of trap before the earning release( Although I don't trade those events)

Value was building but short term share holders exchange stocks but finally it was bid for another spike to new multi month high.

Apple, One of the top Mobile Selling Brands and It had Area of Protection

Chat, here explain that why we should remain alert inside bracket activities and when price has no reason to continue to the downside rally.

Update is here !!

Technical updates of New Zealand Dollar Crosses

I will update all the new-zealand dollar Crosses for the rest of the week.

RBNZ has continue to attract the attention by increasing interest rates, thus means to say they apply the accomodative policy.

Thus, it should be crucial to know who banks and Institutions throughout the world accept this move, So that is why I think there should be lot of opportunities with all the crosses of the Kiwi Dollar.

Here, I have put some thoughts behind Eur/Nzd chart, which tells technical moves after the policy decisions

Technical update Of Intraday opportunities

Advetising mechanism is the real way of sighting opportunities

Price has different variables for "swing trading" and "scalping" as they do differ from each other

scalpers get good profit on "liquidation" at resistance, While swing traders look for other variables like what background is telling.

When overall trend is up and we saw a false "breakout" of Intermediate bracket, and then we saw immediate rise and background is very good or we have possible accumulation before the price breakout and after some ranges look for possible equilibrium point where demand and supply are almost equal. "Advertising mechanism" signals there is not enough sellers and price has to rise immediately.

Where you should enter for Intra-day technical opportunity in Forex.

Take a look at the Eur/cad chart below which tells us why we should enter

While everything is explained in the chart but still it is higher time frame and we should be worrying to enter, where we should look at the possible "area of acceptance", and we should look for strong engulfing or bullish hammer after rejection or rejection.

Other things come in mind whether that momentum will be faded out or not ?

Then we should look for possible points why that engulfing will be faded out, and one strong point here is trend is not strong enough and we are in possible range and that engulfing is not a breakout candle, so if that faded out then it has to fade out immediately and you look at next candle where it starts and its wick,the wick of the candle cover 20% of that engulfing which means taking out small stops.

If that candle turns out to be strong engulfing again (which it did), Then 60% of the chance that this momentum will carry out through-out the day.

Strong trend An activity in between a rotation centre and breakout which faded out.

Strong breakouts which faded out doesn not means to go counter-trend immediately An Intraday activity always start with slow movement and it could be a part of accumulation as I have present here couple of chart which had strong background and it was quite obvious that stops has to given away before next rally.

First of all I would present you the chart of last week which shows strong momentum out of rotation centre accumulation, which was "faded Out" Immediately.

Trader p$ychology is tells the mindset to trade logic and breakout which faded out was there to go against the breakout but It is not the way we should approach every faded out move.

Let's take a look at the example, First!

Pound has done the same activity as shown in the above chart !

Here it could be another intraday opportunity waiting ? because price has continously moving upwards of its opening levels, and that is the crucial thing to now what background tells and whether value is moving with price or now

So, its worth to calculate you stops levels or look for momentum to enter and get out if it fades out quickly, but this type of momentum does had a carry till the end of the day or another day.