In this chart I have explained what is risk reward and what is potential fakeout and complete understanding of the chart and you don't need to wait daily for such setups as they are properly planned and you just need to understand the logic and then react.
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Hi traders,
I had few weeks off and again here to update the blog with the best of the services I can offer. Today, I am here to discuss with you the qualities of a traders which you or me all need to work and It could be really daunting task to change the habbits but once You are good at doing what professional traders do, You don't had to follow the instructions from anybody else.
There is no denying the fact that trading is rewarding and that is why lot of institutions organizations are putting lot of efforts daily to facilitate trading and take their part and they don't care what others win or lost and that is the best quality a trader can have. You should never look for what you put at stake or what others are doing and you should know what your strengths are and should always look to act when needed.
Risk Reward in Trading is the best thing a trader can work and if you are strong in getting high rewarding setups, and look for the low risk opportunities and have patience to watch out for such setups, then that it is the best thing we can do. A setup below really explains it all for a trader and such setups are rewarding when there is complete understanding of price action and you have such strong Risk Rewards and I always like 10 times or more reward and that setup certainly had the potential.
Its quite a while since we have seen rallies from dollar index and its counterpart Euro and reason being the dovish Fed and key data awaited and no hikes in recent months after the first hike in December last year, But I think its just a matter of time when Dollar future will find direction and when It rallies it would be the strongest in the recent weeks and months. I have a trading plan to trade dollar Index and Gold Futures and I will keep the blog updated from time to time or when the opportunity arrives and that will help you to find low risk high rewarding setups.
Chart
Price has been trading in range from 1300 to 1380 for quite a while and I am still expecting that support to hold the price for a move towards 1340-55 area from where we could see another rally downwards from the Gold and there are no global clues of improvement and signs of growing global economies and economies like China, Australia biggest importer of gold are struggling from growth and hence banks are looking for tightening and it really needs a lot when they start expanding their balance sheet or we can see this type of reaction till the U.S election but I am expecting the ranges might be over in a week or so when we enter the last quarter of the year and that for me is always the most volatile quarter of all the year's trading activity.
Trading has been quite choppy during last but as chart speaks to you and there was no institutional and Banks involvement was seen and hence we don't seen price move strongly in one direction. Up and down both sides price found support and found sellers at the top. I really found a chart of gbp/usd, which I found of my liking and I think it will be better off to share.
If you take a look at the chart you will find reason there was strong rejection of the particular area on the top marked with blue rectangle and when price bounced of the lows this area hold the price for three consecutive rallies and then finally we see a break of the area and then price retreat of these levels and It was quite evident that we will see some reaction when this area will be again test and hence price found resistance again.
Friday rally was very low risk and Now I expect price to find support between 1.3120 and 1.3040 area, and rally again to 1.3280 for a test and this time If it got rejected we will set pending sell limit orders around those levels for another rally towards 1.2950 area, but IF price could not found support then we won't bother to look at this potential fakeout.
Trading has been quite choppy and reason being the expectations and japan and Britain focus has now again been shift to Federation and next meeting will be a concern that september rate hike talks would be strong and we can see a hike next month when federation member met for the policy discussions.
Its always important for us to know the trending pairs and play a waiting game till the price itself talk about the next move. No laughing stroke, as I see chart talking about the next move and that is what a trader has to look out for. Recent price action in Aud/nzd tells me that parity is again on the cards specially when so many rejects and overall bearish trend is roaring and we see another rejection Friday and test of 1.0700 area will be rejected once again and we can see 1.0450 and 1.0270 are and that will be a much better trade entry with no risk at all.
Sell stop at 1.0700
stop around 1.0735
Target first 1.0580
Target second 1.0450
I really want to test If price has rejected with purpose and supply from 1.0700 has been tested twice and reason I am quite confident that Price has engulf the last flag which was protected while it was tested last time and this time price has strongly rejected from the supply again and this time engulfing the demand strongly and that is the reason any test of 1.0700 will be rejected and that is why I always trading pairs which are trending and have clear swings and have least risk involved.
Swing trading is not easy but logic behind Swing trading is quite simple and you don't need any help of Indicators and other technical tools to spot the involvement of strong money as they hardly watch any chart to move the price and they use charts only for one purpose and i.e stop hunting. That trade of Aud/nzd can really help you trade naked charts once I post the chart in my next post of trade diary for the week August 14th 2016.
It has been quite a busy week but at the end of the week as it happen mostly on last trading Friday of the month and last day of the week, currencies starts moving erotically and usd/cad was no different.
But what different has happen as it was on the cards and when you spot smart money around you can expect movement in every correlated or non-correlated assets class pair and as Canadian dollar is directly correlated with Crude, whose downside pressure was on the move suddenly we see profit taking and GDP numbers from US and Canadian Area was surprising factor in the overall context and hence strong movement was already witness on the chart.
As you all might wonder, what is imbalance and I have stated it so many times in my blog Articles that strong trend reversals out of nowhere and then minor bull bear fight to move the price is the "Imbalance", area on the chart and we all must eye such locations and canadian dollar recent up down movement was a great clue of something will give away at some point and today was the day.
IF you see the chart clearly I have mention two areas where strong set of orders are seen after price make a new high and fail to hold on those highs are first clue of collecting all the buy orders against the big sell orders and this week new multi month high was no different as price engulf that with pressure and after that you just have to find the approach to supply and QM area to short and where risk to reward should be atleast 5-6 times but pair has fallen more than 150 pips so that rewards was never expected.
Its has been a struggle for new traders to how to choose from swing trading and scalping as short term risks are always better for them to get small profits and build their accounts and they try using lot of indicators and expert advisors to see the results if it suits their trading style and yet it never did they never been able to admit that there is no such path of success that leads to shortest way to get there and scalping is such an illusion that traders find themelves very difficult to get out of those short term money making techniques.
As a young trader, everyone use to try everything, atleast for first few years and it has been happening to everyone of us, not to every 2 or 3 out of 10 traders but 9 out of 10 traders using same techniques and mistakes over the years, but technology has changes and everything is made available so easily these days, but choice and control depends on traders as it always been the case.
But how and when is always the biggest question arising out of minds. So, lets start this journey with few checklists that we always need to be aware of while picking up choices between swing trading and scalping.
To start off, scalping is a technique which we use to trade to pick up small profits by entering a suitable pairs for several times a day .let's say scalp euro for 10 pips with stop 3-5 pips and do that 3 to 4 times a day and you succeed half of the times. So risking 5x4=20 to make 10x4=40 which means reward should always be 2 times or more.
In the process mentioned above even If you win half of the times you still make 20 pips and even if you loss three you still loose only 5 pips for the day and it is easy to recover next day and hope you win 3 out of 4 and that process continues and you start to believe in yourself that slowly and surely you can built such techniques and from time to time apply filters to make these scalping technique much improved and easy to use to identify setup to make a sound living out of Forex.
That statement tells us the importance of money management skills that we use to implement in our trading no matter what strategy we use and no matter which trading style we adopt but now the question is which strategy is so powerful that help us identify the direction and pinpoint stops and profit target that we can use the entire day or even a single session on day to day basis.
Simple answer here is adaptability and our accessing power tells us pairs that are trending and for this we should not be limited to a single cross and pick multiple pairs that are trending and find trade locations which tells us the probable profit potential.
Simply pick gbp/jpy and pairs which trend strongly everyday and yen paris hardly offers extended choppiness and are best to use while swing trading and necessary tools you need to pick up trend with entry and exits are being discussed in details below.
It quite a busy outing altogether for currency traders with risk on and demand for safe heaven this month and I still would expect situation to remain subdued for the risk on trades.
I posted two posts on gold future updates around 1380 and 1332 and both the conditions were fulfilled and price is now in PA zone and I would expect price to remain volatile and react to recent new supply and I would expect the rejection and towards the target around 1305 area
[Also Watch :- Recent Articles on Gold futures ]
Euro dollar is moving in narrow range and trading just around the range low ahead of 1.0900 support and I would like to keep an eye if there is any rejection from that support and price manage to stay above 1.1050 for a move towards the range high and then possible new direction to new high above the range.
With recent Price Action and FOMC statement due to release next week, I would like to see price reacts to support and we can see bullish price Action in Euro, but still price action is very bearish and I would post an article after the report will be published and Euro is surely to find direction after the report as there is not a lot happening from ECB, and traders are really looking for Fed officials comments for the direction in Euro exchange Rate.
This week is full of fundamental analysis with focus shift on FOMC statement as talks of September hike is really putting risk on as after what happened after "Brexit" referendum has put lot of pressure on Federation and If there is any report telling that of shifting the rate hike to next quarter would really put pressure on U.S dollar and it can retreat from recent levels and Australian dollar would be bought from the recent levels but due to recent talk of Rate cut and recent price action can dilute the comment and we can see price don't react as expected.
Trading such scenarios is quite profitable when Price Compressed to supply and rejection are followed by choppy and sideways price action as Pair look for direction ahead of strong fundamentals report and If expectations are not met price usually lack supports and bearish pressure is quite imminent.
ChartCanadian dollar is all set for new direction as we saw a break above recent range and retreat from these levels but Price has strong support as mention in the blue boxes in the chart and If price manage to break below these areas then I would like to see the approach towards the supply and I would still maintain my bearish outlook for the canadian dollar towards my next target 1.2630.
Price has manage to react to the strong areas and rejections are quite volatile and this confirms that new high would probably show the same momentum as it has show in recent weeks.
[Also watch:- How I manage to Pick bearish Price Action In Gold Futures ]
