Thursday, July 31, 2014

Price did not find any support from different timeframes

Shift in value after no support bounce

Hi traders, Now I am about to discuss few points about when "Price did not find any support from different timeframes" in recent strong move bounce from the low. In forex trading it is necessary to watch logic and remain conscious is the next thing to do. We might see strong trend up or down but relavant information is not necessary in forex trading to enter or exit

Different Forex Strategies points to different price behaviour

Different Forex Strategies tells us that what candles and indicators are doing with current Strong or rangebound trading.

But when You see immediate bounce when there is new low or new high that reverse the price, then it is known as No support show from other timeframes and the bounce might countinue lift price specially if there is shift in value immediately.

Recently I have supported such activity in Eur/cad Chart

Following the explanation of above mentioned comments, I am posting a recent updated chart of eur/cad when we spot such activity and there could lot more to come ahead of Canadian GDP data which is due to release today, So If you are good enough to spot another low risk entry then this chart can fetch some good profits.

Thursday, July 24, 2014

Questionnaire asked by a trade
Most Important things to know
Frequently ask question

Proper questions for traders Hi traders. Our development in trading depends on what questions do we ask. What do I mean by that? The better questions we ask in our learning, the better answers we will get. I work with traders educating them for about more than 3 years now. I and will say to you, that most traders ask wrong questions. In this article I want to make a top-list of most popular questions that should be rephrase to give trader a chance to succeed.

Bad Question: How much will I earn with trading?

This question is very understandable, because every trader comes to the market to earn money after all. But this questions assumes that profit in trading is guaranteed. In fact, it’s much harder to survive in the long run than to earn in short-term perspective.

Every trader can pick good trade from time to time, but there are too many factors that keep trader away from moving forward. It can be either psychological factors or market understanding, but statistics is merciless – around 70% of trades (and in fact, even more) lose money in the long run.

I hear many times from traders what I call «10% mantra». They say – «I can earn 10% a month safely, if I try to make 20-30% it will be risky». It is far from true. So, question that sounds like «how much money will I earn with trading» is equal to «how many tigers will I kill hunting in jungle»? When task of survival is not achieved, talking about profits makes no sense. First trader needs to take protective actions – develop proper money management, loss limits, adequate market understanding. And when he learns how not to lose his capital, it will be fair to talk about profits. The only group of traders that can be motivated by profits, is expert traders.

Only after you can learn to protect your capital, you can estimate the potential for profit (and it can vary upon market conditions, accepted risk and other parameters)

Proper question: How can I preserve my capital and survive the learning curve?

Bad question: Where will the price go?

Another question that is not very useful for trader – «Where will the price go?» (What to expect from the market). You know, many would like to know what will happen. But studies have shown that behavior of price can not be predicted accurately. Best traders are ok to have no more than 50% of winning trades (yet their profitable trades bring more than losing ones).

The game of prediction has nothing to do with real trading. It’s been proven by statistics that predictions have no correlations with real events in a long run. What about analysts? They have to create content every day, they can’t afford to issue one article a month or less (when they see really good opportunity). But trader has no such obligations. We can trade any time we want and we’d better choose the best of market can offer.

The best question you can ask is not «where the price will go», but rather «where is trade location with low initial risk for my trade?». Focusing on predicting makes you concentrate on something you can’t control. All we can control in trading is our risk. Tool for managing risks are: Market analysis, trade location (reasonable level for placing your stop) and money management. As you see, market analysis is not the most dominant part in this triad, it is just «one leg of a stool», no more.

It is important to have expectations about possible market movements, but it is more important to know your trade location – in other words, to know how exactly are you going to play this scenario.

Not being right is important, but earning more when you are right and losing less when you are wrong. It’s realistic. It’s achievable.

Proper question: How can I reduce risk in my trade and maximize return?

Nothing new about it, huh?

But it’s our human nature – we want to eliminate uncertainty, we want to know the future, therefore we focus on what we can’t control. Can we expect to have different statistics (70% traders or more lose their capitals entirely) having such beliefs?

But you can be different. You can be a winning trader.

Logic repeats and Trend Continues After Candlestick Trap

Best way to trade breakouts is conscious Approach

I posted in my previous post that Logic often works and trend continues when we see a candlestick trap, and That is what has really happen in recent Eur/nzd rally as we have seen On Monday morning when price open with gap, and With a strong 50 pips gap in the "context" is too elongated.

After two day activity price went from one extreme to another and when this type of activity happen the market often do this type of pattern with again the trend strong breakouts and price reverse from the low of that correction ends.

Logic and consciousness is required to trade the recent setup in Eur/nzd

The Idea is if we look into overall context then we must remember that Idea to go short here prior to a high risk event has No logic as price does often can spike and continue rising and entry was offered at 1.5610 area and With strong candle from the lows it is almost impossible to calculate the stops. So, We should be conscious enough to buy with bearish breakout low and stops should be tight as In this case