How to select Currency Pairs to trade Trending Or Sideways

Since I have start trading Forex, It took me while to understand which pairs should I line up for the next week. So, I decided to target News calendar for that Purpose and see which Currency Pair has high impact releases to be Scheduled next week and then I decided to take with the trend entries only and upcoming reports should match with trend entry. But that did not work for me in the long run as I struggle to find out the reason why currency pairs reverse even after strong data in favor. Strong Release does move pairs but If that release brings risk aversion, then It can reverse totally, but Chart should be decisive enough for us to make crucial decision at such events.

Well, It is quite clear that only few major pairs dominate the market volume as it is prime choice of bunch of traders, and every strategy you built in may not suit every currency pair, because few currency pairs offer strong movements and volatility, they still might not be best one to trade at particular scenarios, specially at the time of release. Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Eurodollar, Pound dollar and Dollar Yen are prefferrable choice for every trader to look for their profits but still there might be few correlated pairs that you can use to hedge positions but still You does need to see enough reason to trade the rest of the currency pairs that offer movement and are trending as well.

There are so many factors that influence the movement of a Currency Pairs event after positive data release that should offer strength and good enough to buy but still it moves lower and trade has to be close due to loss. Its a trader's responsibility to track which currency pair is dominating e.g Dollar has been dominate against pound since last year or so and When You expect couple of news can drive sterling higher or reverse the trade, then You should built several strategy that offer entries in trending market.

Let's be more decisive with the chart to clear Doubts raising in your mind

Pound Policy Statement and Inflation Report

These two reports were the highlights of previous week as Pound was moving sideways for extended period in expectation of this release and as You see in daily chart pair has already reverse and that bearish movement was quite significant and one should always look for short entries If trend start to reverse of a new high.

Let’s take the above scenario from another perspective:-

There is another perspective that You can take it from above example as you expect British pound to increase in Value, so you want to buy pound. But instead of just look to buy pound against the dollar, you search for the most suited pair to do it with. And after bit of search you find that Australian dollar has been the extremely weaker of all the currency pairs, and you decide that you will buy Strong Pound against Weak Australian Dollar and this works well If you would have been able to do that because it was weakest pair of all on that day.

That's How I find Trending Currency Pairs with Logic and timing

In the example above, you might have get the idea How banks target different currency pairs at different scenarios and How just a big of understanding of the logic and overall context can offer you sense to buy best currency pairs in the trending market even with weak reports which is unexpected scenario but still quite profitable one if you manage to use bit of research and choose optimal currency pair.

How to trade confidently in any global or domestic Market.

Hi, readers, As I have stated in my previous articles that Trading Price Action is all about confidence, but Price Action does involve lot of logic and sense and it is never about doing what we are not suppose to do and by that I means taking choppy market into consideration and letting a loss run expecting that price will come back to your entry again and in expectation drag your too far and get loss more than you first anticipate and that what we all suppose to do what We never or ever should be doing.

Trading with psychological edge should be our first motive and that really put you far from the hurdle who trade for just profit and don't consider why a high probability setups is something we all have to look for rather than high frequency of volume which increases the chances of losses more than chance of winning. Volumes never brings profit as there is always a risk of giving back the profit your earn when you try too much out of Thin Market and specially when trading is So thin like this week and We must observe what price action should do after breakouts in such thin trading sessions.

How I manage to Read the context in Price Action

I thought about taking few Price Action setups of Euro dollar several times this week, but really Price Action did not allow me to do so and hence I drop the Idea of taking any setup and watch if market offers any trap and failed breakout, and today I find out that breakout yesterday was a false trap and another trendline rejection would allow me lot less risky entry than I think of it at first sight, and that is how price action behave after the rejection top which was the base of the selling and because of the fact market compressed to decision point, there was good chance of rejection at trendline as most traders would set pending buy orders at trendlines and that was no exception and Price make a new low today and a setup which initially have few doubts but nothing after rejection as I made my mind to sell at close of rejecting Candle.

Also Read:- Watch How I Recommend Selling Euro After weak US Employment Data

So,a setup which was looking like breakout of choppy conditions again failed and market was free to fall after the rejection as chances of bounce were very often in such cases and risk was minimal to zero as We never look to drag the trade and set small stops and look to close when market find a new low with momentum.

Euro Trading US Non Farm Payroll Data Sentiment Bearish

First Friday of the Month is the much awaited one for Currency Traders as It has been the day for me as well since past 9 years or so, as I always wait for the weekly and monthly entries after the data is released.But any good figures this time will put more pressure on Fed and Jenett Yellen before the next meeting on June to consider rate hike and US unemployment is the biggest concern that US face before they start easing since a decade or so ago.

We have seen strong bullish momentum driving Euro to face resistance around 1.1610 handle and after that market Liquidate quite immensely, as you can expect bulls given away at the end of the month profit taking, and also take cautious measures in the Non Farm payroll week. Any good Forex trader will do that coz you never know how much risk can data bring to the market, any strong deviation up and down will drive the sentiment anywhere and I have seen NFP reverses the overall cycle trends as well. So, be prepare with your charts and let the storm settle down and wait cautiously for your entries and IF there is deviation I would bet on Usd/jpy bulls to drive usd/jpy higher.

Also Read :- Trading is all about buy low and sell high.

Euro dollar sentiment turns bearish again

I have manage to spot weakness in ongoing bullish momentum till the price reach 1.1600-20 area, because price has manage to liquidate immediately as it reached the previous resistance, even strong US data hit the market and support weakness of Dollar

It was one of the situations that the weaker group of all the participants known as retail traders were pushing the price up amid previous breakouts and as we all know If price Advertise higher without or very weak strong money participation, it liquidate immediately at those strong turning points as it happened in the case of Euro, and It could just be a start of downside rally which can extends towards 1.1050-10 area.

I recommend buying Usd/jpy after weak US Employment Data

Last Friday, Non-Farm-Payroll data was about to published and Before that release I manage to pick short term bottom in Usd/jpy and recommended buying around 106.85 Area, and price has not pause after that bull participation. You can see the chart as I will update the chart in my next post with weekly and daily levels to watch and I am very positive once again on this currency pair for a test of 111.40 area and There I will have to track the activity again, and let you what's ahead. Price is trading today around 108.90 Area, with strong support around 108.22 area.

Also Read :- How I manage to pick bottom in US Indexes.

Forex Trading is all about trading Zones not Candlesticks.

Forex Price Action is a unfold story, and its success and failure is also hidden till the time we find out ourselves, And the whole story move around the candlestick behavior,trendlines, patterns and fibonacci and specially when breakouts are due to news or some strong expectation prior to the release and other riskier events.

A complete Forex Trading Strategy should be based on trading zones, not on candles, trendline or Fibonacci Patterns. I will give you simple examples that even though market behavior is natural and it is affected by Natural, climatic and political events but real trading behavior is based only on demand and supply of Available assets. So, How can you say the Trading signals should be based on lagging Indicators, Expert advisor and Candles. For me Candlesticks trading gives you a satisfaction or overall trend but no clues that it will keep going up or down in the same way it has gone right after the break.

Also watch:- How I trade Inverse Head & shoulder and grab 300 Pips

Strong Candles are only part of News or Risky Events

As I have stated above in my article that Forex Trading Strategies should be based on understanding and implementing the logic and context written there off and untill we find out the reason of trend is about to resume or collapse, we found ourselves in only loose loose situation, and our emotions and bias force us to take those trades which are based only on candles and trendlines.

We all sort of have same mindset to enter prior to release and key event in hope of missing some strong movements so we often found the strong moves low and depend on candles low or high to protect us, in case move went against us and we got shocks when that key event is released and market went totally against our prediction and we don't have option but to cut loss early or let the stop get hit and just watch it market doing it.

What we left with is spike and sideways movement most of the time and before next movement stop hunters secretly found that hidden stops below candles which is used without revision and mean and that is the big reason of our failure. I have come up with the thoughts of letting everybody know, novice or experienced that whenever you trade Forex Candlesticks look to see the closest zones and valid context and IF you don't see any of these just stop and look for the reaction after the move has happened.

Candles stops hunting after UK Manufacturing PMI data

Here I come up with most recent and strong example of stop hunting just prior to the release of key even of Britain, which effects the currency pair great Britain pound (GBP) and when that data hit the market pound was sold across the board heavily, and just few seconds prior to the release it was very strongly bid and strong cash flow was witness but it all faltered just after the release and market immensely liquidate throughout the day and follow up the next day as well.

Tuesday, 3rd of May 2016, Just prior to the release Pound was strongly bullish with recent trend picking up momentum from lows and was in full flow, and strong bullish candle to start off the session and usual break out of the prior day high was good enough to push for smart money and price was the best one to hit the supply and reverse and stops were hit both way around the candle and that is how market use to behave with candles and even with strong moves, I can show that only 10-15% of the time strong trends breakouts with strong candles succeed.

Forex Trading is all about patience and let your money tree grow

Every passionate Forex trader, who is passionate about its trading use to love its trading and at time he hates it as well. Let me be clear about that concept because trading is the most complicated thing that need to be as simple as it could be. By that I means that use of Indicator, use of excess knowledge, outsmart and disrespect senior traders is meant only to complicate things in your mind and also putting questions again up to you about that anything can go wrong by the word of mouth.

lets face the dark side of Forex trading which is there that it is not a get money Fast or get money quickly with the blink of an eye. There isn't any such things exists ever and those who claims is the only one who sell robots and selling such get rich quick schemes.

Investment should be based on long term

May be there are traders, who claims to make money daily or loosing daily, You never know but those who comes out with evidence that they make big money daily should be ignored as those systems and strategy might not suit everybody or you stress out more that you ever experience before. The truth of the fact is very bitter that If you are trying to make money quickly, no matter how smart you thing and how successful you have been, you will lose in the long run and If you are an exception to the rule than I wish you keep carrying on making money on daily basis and your luck never runs out.

However, for everyone else there is risk involves everytime for day trading. IF you get beat up and lose a fortune, never try for revenge trade to make up for your loses! Take a break from trading, have some rest and collect all pieces of puzzle again and re-think the strategies and then try again. For me, demo trading again for 6-12 months is much better options and Even If you want to trade real then $100 is again good to start and involve interest atleast even with micro lots, but it all depends on what you are comfortable with.
Also Read:- Why Candlesticks often used as stop Hunting by Strong Money holders

Silver Trading Strategy

I have been tracking silver since past few months, and there are times when it completely bullish and out of nowwhere price get headwinds and push after a break against the trend is quite vulnerable as it was with the trend. I would put up thoughts of how to trade silver in the weeks to come as I am eyeing a break of 17.10 area again and test of 16.40 will make sure that a top is finally placed but it completely based on how price action unfolds and during NFP weeks it could be deadly volatile and its dangerous to maintain balance with the Silver Future .

Chart would posted if we see a break of 17.40 area to see if price get pump up again and see the new bears attack the area of 16.40 area and opportunity would be tremendous again for a strong push downwards but so far it could be a test of previous high where price show decent reversal.