Euro Trading US Non Farm Payroll Data Sentiment Bearish

First Friday of the Month is the much awaited one for Currency Traders as It has been the day for me as well since past 9 years or so, as I always wait for the weekly and monthly entries after the data is released.But any good figures this time will put more pressure on Fed and Jenett Yellen before the next meeting on June to consider rate hike and US unemployment is the biggest concern that US face before they start easing since a decade or so ago.

We have seen strong bullish momentum driving Euro to face resistance around 1.1610 handle and after that market Liquidate quite immensely, as you can expect bulls given away at the end of the month profit taking, and also take cautious measures in the Non Farm payroll week. Any good Forex trader will do that coz you never know how much risk can data bring to the market, any strong deviation up and down will drive the sentiment anywhere and I have seen NFP reverses the overall cycle trends as well. So, be prepare with your charts and let the storm settle down and wait cautiously for your entries and IF there is deviation I would bet on Usd/jpy bulls to drive usd/jpy higher.

Also Read :- Trading is all about buy low and sell high.

Euro dollar sentiment turns bearish again

I have manage to spot weakness in ongoing bullish momentum till the price reach 1.1600-20 area, because price has manage to liquidate immediately as it reached the previous resistance, even strong US data hit the market and support weakness of Dollar

It was one of the situations that the weaker group of all the participants known as retail traders were pushing the price up amid previous breakouts and as we all know If price Advertise higher without or very weak strong money participation, it liquidate immediately at those strong turning points as it happened in the case of Euro, and It could just be a start of downside rally which can extends towards 1.1050-10 area.

I recommend buying Usd/jpy after weak US Employment Data

Last Friday, Non-Farm-Payroll data was about to published and Before that release I manage to pick short term bottom in Usd/jpy and recommended buying around 106.85 Area, and price has not pause after that bull participation. You can see the chart as I will update the chart in my next post with weekly and daily levels to watch and I am very positive once again on this currency pair for a test of 111.40 area and There I will have to track the activity again, and let you what's ahead. Price is trading today around 108.90 Area, with strong support around 108.22 area.

Also Read :- How I manage to pick bottom in US Indexes.

Forex Trading is all about trading Zones not Candlesticks.

Forex Price Action is a unfold story, and its success and failure is also hidden till the time we find out ourselves, And the whole story move around the candlestick behavior,trendlines, patterns and fibonacci and specially when breakouts are due to news or some strong expectation prior to the release and other riskier events.

A complete Forex Trading Strategy should be based on trading zones, not on candles, trendline or Fibonacci Patterns. I will give you simple examples that even though market behavior is natural and it is affected by Natural, climatic and political events but real trading behavior is based only on demand and supply of Available assets. So, How can you say the Trading signals should be based on lagging Indicators, Expert advisor and Candles. For me Candlesticks trading gives you a satisfaction or overall trend but no clues that it will keep going up or down in the same way it has gone right after the break.

Also watch:- How I trade Inverse Head & shoulder and grab 300 Pips

Strong Candles are only part of News or Risky Events

As I have stated above in my article that Forex Trading Strategies should be based on understanding and implementing the logic and context written there off and untill we find out the reason of trend is about to resume or collapse, we found ourselves in only loose loose situation, and our emotions and bias force us to take those trades which are based only on candles and trendlines.

We all sort of have same mindset to enter prior to release and key event in hope of missing some strong movements so we often found the strong moves low and depend on candles low or high to protect us, in case move went against us and we got shocks when that key event is released and market went totally against our prediction and we don't have option but to cut loss early or let the stop get hit and just watch it market doing it.

What we left with is spike and sideways movement most of the time and before next movement stop hunters secretly found that hidden stops below candles which is used without revision and mean and that is the big reason of our failure. I have come up with the thoughts of letting everybody know, novice or experienced that whenever you trade Forex Candlesticks look to see the closest zones and valid context and IF you don't see any of these just stop and look for the reaction after the move has happened.

Candles stops hunting after UK Manufacturing PMI data

Here I come up with most recent and strong example of stop hunting just prior to the release of key even of Britain, which effects the currency pair great Britain pound (GBP) and when that data hit the market pound was sold across the board heavily, and just few seconds prior to the release it was very strongly bid and strong cash flow was witness but it all faltered just after the release and market immensely liquidate throughout the day and follow up the next day as well.

Tuesday, 3rd of May 2016, Just prior to the release Pound was strongly bullish with recent trend picking up momentum from lows and was in full flow, and strong bullish candle to start off the session and usual break out of the prior day high was good enough to push for smart money and price was the best one to hit the supply and reverse and stops were hit both way around the candle and that is how market use to behave with candles and even with strong moves, I can show that only 10-15% of the time strong trends breakouts with strong candles succeed.

Forex Trading is all about patience and let your money tree grow

Every passionate Forex trader, who is passionate about its trading use to love its trading and at time he hates it as well. Let me be clear about that concept because trading is the most complicated thing that need to be as simple as it could be. By that I means that use of Indicator, use of excess knowledge, outsmart and disrespect senior traders is meant only to complicate things in your mind and also putting questions again up to you about that anything can go wrong by the word of mouth.

lets face the dark side of Forex trading which is there that it is not a get money Fast or get money quickly with the blink of an eye. There isn't any such things exists ever and those who claims is the only one who sell robots and selling such get rich quick schemes.

Investment should be based on long term

May be there are traders, who claims to make money daily or loosing daily, You never know but those who comes out with evidence that they make big money daily should be ignored as those systems and strategy might not suit everybody or you stress out more that you ever experience before. The truth of the fact is very bitter that If you are trying to make money quickly, no matter how smart you thing and how successful you have been, you will lose in the long run and If you are an exception to the rule than I wish you keep carrying on making money on daily basis and your luck never runs out.

However, for everyone else there is risk involves everytime for day trading. IF you get beat up and lose a fortune, never try for revenge trade to make up for your loses! Take a break from trading, have some rest and collect all pieces of puzzle again and re-think the strategies and then try again. For me, demo trading again for 6-12 months is much better options and Even If you want to trade real then $100 is again good to start and involve interest atleast even with micro lots, but it all depends on what you are comfortable with.
Also Read:- Why Candlesticks often used as stop Hunting by Strong Money holders

Silver Trading Strategy

I have been tracking silver since past few months, and there are times when it completely bullish and out of nowwhere price get headwinds and push after a break against the trend is quite vulnerable as it was with the trend. I would put up thoughts of how to trade silver in the weeks to come as I am eyeing a break of 17.10 area again and test of 16.40 will make sure that a top is finally placed but it completely based on how price action unfolds and during NFP weeks it could be deadly volatile and its dangerous to maintain balance with the Silver Future .

Chart would posted if we see a break of 17.40 area to see if price get pump up again and see the new bears attack the area of 16.40 area and opportunity would be tremendous again for a strong push downwards but so far it could be a test of previous high where price show decent reversal.

Forex trading describes series of patterns that fits into context

Hi, Readers,

Great weekend and great run gold and other commodities as BOJ hold further easing and no clues of adding more stimulus package to recent ongoing package.
Here I have put an chart of recent activity in the pair gbp/usd and the reason why I went short and long and has long term targets, but I would built up new plan and strategies when the next weekend start and that is what we always need to do at the start of new week.

How we built a trading system based on context

We often look for the help of certain trading strategies and develop a system which really ends up with relying on candles e.g pin bar rejection at pinbar, bullish engulfing pattern at 61.8% Fibonacci which still does not confirm how does that describes that it will have a follow through and you look to wait for large stops below the pin bar or Engulfing pattern which does not really help anyways.

Pound Dollar Technical analysis Could Target 1.4900

As I mentioned in my last post regarding bullish pattern occur in Pound Dollar pair and immediate action was seen and even before Ahead of FOMC Report price has managed to hold on to gains and did no liquidate after testing the highs of 1.4610-50 area, and this could be a good sign for bulls to attack more as I have spotted an Inverse Head & shoulder price Action pattern which need validation.

History of patterns In Forex

Every pattern in trading has few strong and valid points and as well as weak points but I always back my decision and give this setup 7 out 10 as Price strong monthly consolidation pattern is about to break, and ahead of key event and if Somehow we see some bullish pattern continuation in next couple of sessions, then I am expecting this strong move in Sterling.

Fibonacci Trendline and Forex patterns don't work

Even though I put lot of efforts in learning and being not a very big fan of those fibonacci, trendlines and Chart reversal patterns like Head & Shoulder pattern, but If we see logic in those reversal patterns then there is no harm is lowering the risk at test and risk 2% or max 3% to make 10-15% of the account and that really what all expect when we first look for a trade in our favor.

The reason why I am quite subdued on this setup (not because of Head & Shoulder Pattern),because we all expect new cash flows in the days to come as we expect a big key events from both Federation and BOE.

Time For Sterling bulls to breach the resistance

This really can put up lot of pressure on sterling which has Under-perform in last few months. even though this pair has the reputation of Safe-heaven and also has performed well as safe heaven currency as We all know UK is strong enough economy to cope with recession and any global crisis such as Crude and Global Slowdown.
Pound got a hit due to reduction in global crude prices and it has been the prime reason for weakening of Single Currency Pair, because U.K rely on Brent crude to supply in Asian countries and hence decline in currency pressure was seen during that period but as Oil has recover strongly we can see the same happening to the Pound as well.