Trade Diary For the Week of April 18,2016

* One of the greatest thing that can happen to a trader is sideways market which can give trade time to prepare and adjust accordingly.

High probability trade probabilities

What we should focus on the high probable moves and by that I means to say probability in setups which are high profile setups or but trends emerging only due to news should be avoided, Whereas to identify this type of moves what we should focused on is that whether the reason of such moves is only due to news or a single factor that influence the currency for long run.

Moves are tend to collapse if there is no strong market maker is interested or look to pause after every break an that is why We should always look for Initiative followed by liquidation break, by means that strong moves after range breakouts specially due to just news.

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Short term spikes can be reason of News release which can create risk but due to lack of approach or follow through market usually pause after the move but these type of strong release can destroy any trend or create short term reversals but You can never identify the reason and Smart money approach after that Currency Move.

Forex Price Action Success and Failure depends on few factors which have been described in details in this blog and several time, but advantage of moving the market at will can never be ruled out but lining up such moves can be spotted and that is what supply and demand has edge over other failure price Action Candlesticks and Trendline setups

Watchout when such breakouts happens in the market only due news and they are do tend to change direction quickly if the news is not digested for too long or lackluster approach and that is why I pick the currency pair which don't have too much influence of what is happening with currency pairs on global factors and hence strong move was expected and that is what I or We all as Forex traders need to do.

Why Trendline and Price Action traders Fail

As it is cleared from the title, I am hereby want to clear few points and question of concern which I earlier answer in mails but it is not possible to reply all of them and pinpoint every topic of candlestick patterns and their real connection with price action.

As we always hear from experience traders that Price Action is the best technique we use in strong trends and just about reaction to EMA,Support or resistance or even other indicators reacting at such levels. Does these type of patterns really going to make you some money in the long term even If you spend years to understand and practice it, but then what about the risk because no matter how your practice how you achieve success on virtual deposits.

Things does never go as we first anticipate or progress as expected because we fall in self-destructive preposition and keep working on something which are always respected to react the same as it does earlier.

*** Trading Price Action With Support and Resistance
Is not that sounds crazy that You trade Price Action and trade historical levels and expected candles to react at support or resistance the same way as it has done in the past or doing since past few decades. This is in itself asking too many questions for yourself.

***Why Price Action trading with historical levels
All the answers will be responded one by one with time as Trading blind setups of price action where chance of failures are more than the chance of winning became our habit and premium tool to predict the future price of assets,which looks quite impossible.

*** Trendline Role In Predicting Future Price of any asset

Chart above shows the only role of Trendline is to gather enough order with every test and small rallies after test is the process of ongoing bulk orders against the recent spike and getting best and real value of the price when asset was bought at the first test of Trendline.

Benefit of building Portfolio of every Trading Strategy

Some traders keep doing and showing same reaction with time and look to adapt to the situation and for some instance they succeed sometimes and manage to catch few moves but You need to Proper portfolio on what type of trades you took and what is the average profit of such system with stop and target as that always help you look for potential reward when such mechanical system is the primary tool for predicting price action

Bottom line is without understanding the complete picture and context, You must have few other powerful tools like potential risk reward and money management helps you with using mechanical system but It need complete and years of practice to perfect .

It always has been a professional approach towards your trading and lining particular pairs only that You think can offer any pullbacks but you should not wait untill it completely reverse and you left with nothing but a huge loss because of momentum carrying and sentiment changes.

Role of Crucial Support and resistance when Price Visit them again

I am not denying the fact that every support or resistance fails, but how many of them would hold nobody know but when and why the should hold is a question of complete attention and knowledge needed to read those moves. Everything should be in-line and crystal clear and should be known in advance and then only you can lower the risk and earn maximum profit potential when You look for resistance or supply is far enough to offer some 3x or even 5x reward on particular trade, where a whole candle can be an earlier attempt to look for strong move in the opposite direction before continuing or resuming the earlier attempt.

Price is all about price recent history approach and decision

Hi, Readers

It has been quite a while since new updates because I had a very busy schedule and today I have decided to update everyone once again about what is price history in real words, and what approach one should use when it is tested in strong moves and what is the reaction and that whole price action unfolds around these scenarios.

Basic of balance and Imbalance

Usually, Price moves in a structure and does not move randomly in one direction and that is why we usually see pause after a strong move and whole buying and selling moves around this pause and if there are not enough buyers or sellers price won't drop or rally and In order to price to move or rally there should be more one type of order (buying or selling) and it that point a base is confirmed and a decision that price is either too cheap of expensive has been made. When price moves away from base there is obvious unfilled orders which remain unfilled so when price returns to the base in future we can expect remaining orders to be filled causing a reacting in price and that is what supply and demand is all about history, approach and decision.

When Supply/Demand breaks

When a level is tested many times during a strong move, Supply and demand levels finally break. This can be done due to once remaining orders being filled and those unfilled orders got consumed or there could be price looking to reverse when significant amount of orders in opposite direction filled which cause breaking of level.

Broken supply/demand level holds some significance. Where once sell orders earlier now became orders and they exist, with the referred as demand levels. This mean upon return to those broken level, we could see a reaction in price, these levels are often referred to as "Swap" levels and this is termed as supply and demand and no one know whether there is supply or demand until we see approach and reaction while price tests those levels.

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Strong bullish momentum breakouts in S&P l S&P Technical analysis

Hi, Readers,
For those who did not check my previous post where I mentioned that I am still bullish S&P for a move towards possibly 2105 area Can look at the post here again.
Also Watch
*** How to Trade bullish breakouts in Trading Chart with Example

Question here is what made me think that bullish momentum is here to stay and its the strongest of momentum we have seen from the low as I have mentioned in my previous posts and doing it here again so. While trading momentum there are still few points that we do need to consider.

* Has price maintain an imbalance when It got a break from the previous swing
* Does price immediate recover on the day of selling or even the when the next session resume.
* Does price spike and maintain another bullish momentum after passive selling or immediately after supply days.

How I trade Bullish Breakouts in Index and Currencies

In the above chart, We can clearly see that S&P breakout from a level and maintain sustain the breakout and spend neutral days around the rotation area which is the first thing that come to mind while spoting such activity that why price has been so passive after such breakout has happened.

*** What is law of consumed supply and demand in Forex Trades with very low risk.

Price has a supply day after price test the breakout and ended the day on lows and what happened when trading resume the next day, price immediately engulf that supply and measured move was seen to end the day.

After that activity we saw a break of highs with ease and the we witness a neutral day activity yesterday. While market was quite cautious prior to release of Non agricultural pay roll data today it test 2037 area which was protected earlier and also was S/R flip and rejection in S&P Future just prior to opening bell of US trading session would have been well timed trade that send the S&P to the new highs around 2072 area which is close to 2% move in a whole trading session.

I also posted few video on such breakouts and one of them you can watch below and I would advice to just wait for such strong bullish momentum to appear and then plan your trading with very low risk trading moves and specially when You are promised to get movement with high impact release like NFP and meeting minutes and risk can hit the market any moment after such release and we can see our potential targets in a session or two .