Plan to trade non farm payrolls. How to protect your account while trading high impact news like NFP

I would like to share my experience on how I approach non farm payroll & what are the reason behind the high volatility during the news release like Non farm payroll .

As we all now non-farm payroll is the highest impact release on the first Friday of every month. This news tells about the recent grown in U.S employment during the past month & has been the reason why Usd pairs behave strongly if there is strong deviation up or down.

U.S banks and federation policies behave accordingly the release of their employment data and that is the reason why unemployment rate falls from the highs of 8.9& to the lows of 3.6% in the release in May 2019. Since then there is bit of up and down movement notified and not much to speak about.

Unemployment rate in itself signifies and economy deteriorating or expanding as standard of living of people improves if there are less jobless people and that is why Non farm payroll tells us about the recent employment activity and participation rate of people employed in the world's strong economy .

I use to play too much with the data when I first came to know about the impact and have been caught other side of the trade so many times & don't know the reason why I've missing an edge while trading such release. Later, I stop watching any news and start looking at the chart levels of Eur/usd & usd/jpy and their correlation for the past number of days & then take a look at levels for taking a trade & If chart has nothing to do with release I usually avoid trading on such news release as I usually do.

Non Farm payroll and Eur/usd trade

I would closely watch the euro around 1.1045 area, & would like to see the impact and price action when price approach that area. I am surely looking to short euro after the release, no matter what the news tells us & also the reason bear domination on the pair in the past few weeks .

All the rally in euro dollar has been faded and price usually test the news lows even after rallying strongly and that has happened 10 out of 10 times in the past n number of rallies. So, speaking itself about the pair my target for the pair would be 1.0925 and stops around 1.1070 and entry would be around 1.1045. Still I would look at smaller time frames and set of orders after release and usually I am not expecting too much out of the news because even a strong pick up in unemployemnt rate would be temporarily and price will be settled around today's lows .

So, stay tuned for the chart and entry levels half and hour prior to release and don't expect too much rallies up or down before the release tomorrow

Trade Performance for the past month & Update on U.S market delisting Chinese Share & how much it would impact global markets

Hi, Readers ! I would like to update you guys about whats happening around the world, whether it is U.S Chinese Trader war, Brexit or U.S banks decision's impact on global market.

I would like to keep this short & Sweet for a while as I'm running out of time but the move that U.S exchange took on Friday by delisting Chinese shares would really impact highly on upcoming trade war decisons.

But before throwing more light on U.S-China trade war, I would like to show you how we perfom in september. Its last couple of days & I've not decided to step into the market till the new month stars.

This week has lot to offer. Update by Saudis on how much damage was made by strikes on Oil production station on Monday & also the most important Non-farm payroll coming Friday

Price Action Analysis on October 1st 2019

Scalp opportunity on offer on usdjpy

I've spotted an opportunity on usd/jpy, which is a very low risk reward opportunity. Currently price is approaching 108.30 area, which is the defining the current trend in usdjpy & good line of defence for bears & when bulls approach attack this area, bears start to dominate again. I would put my stops just above the next base 108.35 around 108.49 to be exact and my take profit target would be around 107.60 area.

Take a look at the chart

Stop hunting process was repeated and rentry was forced on 108.22

Let's explain the whole process in the easiest way one could. We set up a pole that berakout and make a new high & since the low was confluence of the move and lower low of the range . We saw rejection just below the level and price made a base before retesting it with compression.

Compression is a set of orders which are filled or left unfilled during a move. When it reach the source of the move it usually have maintain a imbalance and price dropped sharply amid supply and demand imbalance.

I've market few important points on the chart below which you should take in notice while taking such trades.

1.

Pole makes a breakout and new higher high

2.

Price breaks the range with a small base and decision point is strong enough & carry momentum to make a new lower low

3.

Whenever we see a drop and a base within a single bullish candle and range bound bearish candle & then drop and retest of the level, tighten your screws and put the stop above the high and let the trade unless we have high impact news is due to release or we see a engulf of flag opposite side of the Price Action

Bank Manipulations trading, Federation Rate Cut & Aud/cad

Hi, Readers

I would like to inform everyone who has taken the trade with me on my last post call.

Aud/cad Closed with the second Target Hit i.e. 0.9015 (Shy few pips )

Check the Trade Recommendation at the bottom of this page here

Let's Discuss more about Institutional Activity to get an idea how banks & hedges funds operates the market.

Of course, in some cases, after news announcements or forced by circumstances, institutional buyers or sellers can enter the market this way,

But it would be a messy trade and their clients would not appreciate it. Yes, sometimes they are forced, sometimes they have no choice, but more often than not, they don't do it.

They need to build a position before.

So, if we see a rapid move, what is it?

It is emotional reaction of the market - it is a sign of crowd. Traders are acting in sync with each other and create a crowd.

More often, rapid move is a result either a short-coverage (move up) or long liquidation (move down). WILL price action continue after rapid movement? Actually, nobody knows that. It will depend on various factors and I would not bet money on it. Traders in whole are driven by linear logics. For example: "we see something volatile, it's a sign of big guys going to one direction". It doesnt' work that way. Big guys try to be ahead of the crowd. But IF there is a continuation of a rapid move AND series of new highs/lows, than probably it can be a sign of a single big player.

Why? Because market continues building in the favor of previous breakout, it often happens when sellers are too weak and can't create enough pressure to drive prices back to previous range.

So, you know already that big guys rarely come to the market and buy all they want. They need to build their positions, sometimes in sideways market, sometimes on moving market. It's called accumulation. The opposite process (when they cover their positions) is called distribution. That's how market mechanics works. For example, if big buyer participates the market Big player accumulates positions, market is temporarily oversold on weak side, it breaks out from the range of accumulation, then rapidly pulls back, levels below are protected, market is bought out and highs are retested.

If later on we see market "leaning" on higher prices, it's a sign of possible imbalance - buyer is in control and if seller will not step in, market will continue renewing highs.

Then you may see pullback again and if market "drills" lower prices, imbalance is possibly disappeared - your opportunity no longer exists.

Take a look at this chart where there was Imbalance which disappears when market breaks the floor again

Chart will be posted by the U.S session, stay tuned

Gold future price Entry on Friday 20th September 2019

I was eyeing that entry on gold future. Price has played out patterns with strong up and down movements but most of the downside movements are followed by consolidation. I've mentioned everything on chart.

Price usually follow patterns and try to find out the value

It will fluctuate from one point to another and look for possible extremes to react. We need to find out where we can minimum the risk. Possible bottom or top is the best way to define the value.

Best way to look out for fakeouts is possible left & right shoulder. This is where we can look for extreme resistances and support.

Taking it further on how banks & institutions trade with Live trade example of usdchf Chart

Hi, Readers !

As I have mentioned in my earlier post here about I'm bearish on Usd/chf trade & taking it from there I'm updating the chart because I think there is more bearish price action to stall on the pair.

Banks often eyes on liquidation and collection of orders from retail traders before pushing the price up and down. Usually they take the help of most important support and resistance & when we see engulf the areas, then we usually need to understand the reason of such price action. Fakeout up or below , mpl levels approach & that is why I've always targeted pairs with most in news & with clearer swings & that is why I've been successful posting charts before they really turned up or down.

Fundamental trading helps only when price Approaches crucial areas of turning

Fundamental or news trading is the easiest way to make money in Forex, but you need to understand the reason why price shifts and how it approach crucial areas before it turned up or down. Scalp here or there usually don't work but if You trade with conviction and practice, then you won't need any other thing but to wait for the release and mark the areas and trade with small stops and get surprised over time with the results.

That is exactly what happened with usd/chf chart . As we all know that Usd/chf & Eur/usd are negatively correlated and ECB policy decision was due to release on Thursday & that is what we all need to see why price shifts momentum on crucial day & due to weekend price found support and now test the broken area of importantce which I marked with brown trendline & will keep an eye on how it approach and I recommend stay shorts with tight stops and I'm sure , we are eyeing another 100-150 pips on the pair.

Stay Tuned for weekend updates !

Updae on 17th September 2019

Aud sell reenter around 0.9084 stop 0.9112

Target 1st 0.9040

Target second 0.9015

How to trade currencies as a supply and demand trader as banks do

Hi, Readers.

I hope you all are enjoying your trading as Usd/cad really giving us more than what we first anticipated & now it turns of the U.S dollars bulls to final lay down.

Let's putting the trade & setups Aside & talk about the potential to grow your trading skills. I've been asked numerous time that How I manage to get that much out of my trading with just 10-15 pips stop & Riding the reversals and continuation of trend.

So, In order to answer this, I would like to reply with just one 'quote' which is experience & know what is happening on the chart. You ever realize trading a 5 minute chart with ticks & getting 10-20 pips in session is what banks do in order to liquidate market.

So, If you don't believe one thing which is how does the market move that much in 'Active' Trading hours. That is what banks and institutions been doing all the time. If they never participate in trading then Market might keep moving in another direction,unless and untill there are opposite orders & this happens everyday.

Now the Question Here Arise is :-

How does banks, institutions, hedge funds & other Financial Institutions trade

That's truly the reason to believe that how does large institutions, banks and other financial institutions trade & Why can't they trade against each other and try to be on top. Let's make one thing clear which is that they trade in one direction & never do participate at once as there are always one at the top & left clues on the chart where it would leave & when there is enough orders to liquidate and re-enter before continuation or reversals.

If you want to know how they do, then bookmark this post & keep looking everyday for next one month to see If there is something of 'Value', you get to know and we should start with a chart of Gbp/nzd & usd/chf today when U.S market close.

First of all, I would look into the Usd/chf Chart, where I will point out three back to back trading opportunity and forth one around these levels from 0.9870 -0.9950 & when this will happen, I would be first one to update the chart. All these opportunities were sell big time, either it was pending sell orders or retest with strong conviction & compression to revisit demand again.

First of all , look at the left shoulder Area, It could be Drop base really after engulf & Could be QM level special when a strong break followed by failed retest Level.

2. Whenever you see failed Retest level look to tighten your screws & always look for approach & lined up trade on any time frame.

3. Most Important point to note here is, It could be a strong historical level turned into Left Should of 'head & shoulder' family where Banks & institutions have pending orders before next move to the source or target.

4. Next level to watch out for is (If it is a Dbr after engulf, low of base level If at all there is a trick played there. Suppose if high or left of the shoulder is way to strong level to approach , If the move after break and retest is very strong, then probably base of that level is test with conviction and a new Flag is created below that level.

5. I would should you all these steps level by level & Surely that study is going to continue for months to come & You should not miss it as couple of months will entirely change the way you trade & way should be trading in the next months & years to come.

Price Action follows a structure of broken & Retest Approach which is a sign of Weakness or strength when Approached

Price Action only tell us who is king & who is dominating the market . Bulls or Bears who have the edge .

No one can ever tell prior to move that who will dominate the market but structure is one good predominant clue of what market is above to do when approach. e.g Price following a structure of broken support and retest in the following chart.

But when last support was broken , banks plays a trick of failed retest and create a panic area which is so called 'Left shoulder' as mark with the blue line.

Market created a random fakeout after testing and failed at previous demand but market does not have enough force to retest the broken level again. So, it create a flag Just below the left should and engulf the drop base rally with conviction which was good enough to look out for opportunity to sell again at the left shoulder.

This structure is the easiest piece of Pie you can ever have. Market found structures failed rallies, Drop base drop & Candlesticks Traps after one another. But only most of them fail but those which works does not move an point or two higher when exactly predicted.

Stay tuned for another Chart Example & probably this one would be a live Trade .