Trade Performance for the past month & Update on U.S market delisting Chinese Share & how much it would impact global markets

Hi, Readers ! I would like to update you guys about whats happening around the world, whether it is U.S Chinese Trader war, Brexit or U.S banks decision's impact on global market.

I would like to keep this short & Sweet for a while as I'm running out of time but the move that U.S exchange took on Friday by delisting Chinese shares would really impact highly on upcoming trade war decisons.

But before throwing more light on U.S-China trade war, I would like to show you how we perfom in september. Its last couple of days & I've not decided to step into the market till the new month stars.

This week has lot to offer. Update by Saudis on how much damage was made by strikes on Oil production station on Monday & also the most important Non-farm payroll coming Friday

Price Action Analysis on October 1st 2019

Scalp opportunity on offer on usdjpy

I've spotted an opportunity on usd/jpy, which is a very low risk reward opportunity. Currently price is approaching 108.30 area, which is the defining the current trend in usdjpy & good line of defence for bears & when bulls approach attack this area, bears start to dominate again. I would put my stops just above the next base 108.35 around 108.49 to be exact and my take profit target would be around 107.60 area.

Take a look at the chart

Stop hunting process was repeated and rentry was forced on 108.22

Let's explain the whole process in the easiest way one could. We set up a pole that berakout and make a new high & since the low was confluence of the move and lower low of the range . We saw rejection just below the level and price made a base before retesting it with compression.

Compression is a set of orders which are filled or left unfilled during a move. When it reach the source of the move it usually have maintain a imbalance and price dropped sharply amid supply and demand imbalance.

I've market few important points on the chart below which you should take in notice while taking such trades.

1.

Pole makes a breakout and new higher high

2.

Price breaks the range with a small base and decision point is strong enough & carry momentum to make a new lower low

3.

Whenever we see a drop and a base within a single bullish candle and range bound bearish candle & then drop and retest of the level, tighten your screws and put the stop above the high and let the trade unless we have high impact news is due to release or we see a engulf of flag opposite side of the Price Action

Bank Manipulations trading, Federation Rate Cut & Aud/cad

Hi, Readers

I would like to inform everyone who has taken the trade with me on my last post call.

Aud/cad Closed with the second Target Hit i.e. 0.9015 (Shy few pips )

Check the Trade Recommendation at the bottom of this page here

Let's Discuss more about Institutional Activity to get an idea how banks & hedges funds operates the market.

Of course, in some cases, after news announcements or forced by circumstances, institutional buyers or sellers can enter the market this way,

But it would be a messy trade and their clients would not appreciate it. Yes, sometimes they are forced, sometimes they have no choice, but more often than not, they don't do it.

They need to build a position before.

So, if we see a rapid move, what is it?

It is emotional reaction of the market - it is a sign of crowd. Traders are acting in sync with each other and create a crowd.

More often, rapid move is a result either a short-coverage (move up) or long liquidation (move down). WILL price action continue after rapid movement? Actually, nobody knows that. It will depend on various factors and I would not bet money on it. Traders in whole are driven by linear logics. For example: "we see something volatile, it's a sign of big guys going to one direction". It doesnt' work that way. Big guys try to be ahead of the crowd. But IF there is a continuation of a rapid move AND series of new highs/lows, than probably it can be a sign of a single big player.

Why? Because market continues building in the favor of previous breakout, it often happens when sellers are too weak and can't create enough pressure to drive prices back to previous range.

So, you know already that big guys rarely come to the market and buy all they want. They need to build their positions, sometimes in sideways market, sometimes on moving market. It's called accumulation. The opposite process (when they cover their positions) is called distribution. That's how market mechanics works. For example, if big buyer participates the market Big player accumulates positions, market is temporarily oversold on weak side, it breaks out from the range of accumulation, then rapidly pulls back, levels below are protected, market is bought out and highs are retested.

If later on we see market "leaning" on higher prices, it's a sign of possible imbalance - buyer is in control and if seller will not step in, market will continue renewing highs.

Then you may see pullback again and if market "drills" lower prices, imbalance is possibly disappeared - your opportunity no longer exists.

Take a look at this chart where there was Imbalance which disappears when market breaks the floor again

Chart will be posted by the U.S session, stay tuned

Gold future price Entry on Friday 20th September 2019

I was eyeing that entry on gold future. Price has played out patterns with strong up and down movements but most of the downside movements are followed by consolidation. I've mentioned everything on chart.

Price usually follow patterns and try to find out the value

It will fluctuate from one point to another and look for possible extremes to react. We need to find out where we can minimum the risk. Possible bottom or top is the best way to define the value.

Best way to look out for fakeouts is possible left & right shoulder. This is where we can look for extreme resistances and support.

Taking it further on how banks & institutions trade with Live trade example of usdchf Chart

Hi, Readers !

As I have mentioned in my earlier post here about I'm bearish on Usd/chf trade & taking it from there I'm updating the chart because I think there is more bearish price action to stall on the pair.

Banks often eyes on liquidation and collection of orders from retail traders before pushing the price up and down. Usually they take the help of most important support and resistance & when we see engulf the areas, then we usually need to understand the reason of such price action. Fakeout up or below , mpl levels approach & that is why I've always targeted pairs with most in news & with clearer swings & that is why I've been successful posting charts before they really turned up or down.

Fundamental trading helps only when price Approaches crucial areas of turning

Fundamental or news trading is the easiest way to make money in Forex, but you need to understand the reason why price shifts and how it approach crucial areas before it turned up or down. Scalp here or there usually don't work but if You trade with conviction and practice, then you won't need any other thing but to wait for the release and mark the areas and trade with small stops and get surprised over time with the results.

That is exactly what happened with usd/chf chart . As we all know that Usd/chf & Eur/usd are negatively correlated and ECB policy decision was due to release on Thursday & that is what we all need to see why price shifts momentum on crucial day & due to weekend price found support and now test the broken area of importantce which I marked with brown trendline & will keep an eye on how it approach and I recommend stay shorts with tight stops and I'm sure , we are eyeing another 100-150 pips on the pair.

Stay Tuned for weekend updates !

Updae on 17th September 2019

Aud sell reenter around 0.9084 stop 0.9112

Target 1st 0.9040

Target second 0.9015

How to trade currencies as a supply and demand trader as banks do

Hi, Readers.

I hope you all are enjoying your trading as Usd/cad really giving us more than what we first anticipated & now it turns of the U.S dollars bulls to final lay down.

Let's putting the trade & setups Aside & talk about the potential to grow your trading skills. I've been asked numerous time that How I manage to get that much out of my trading with just 10-15 pips stop & Riding the reversals and continuation of trend.

So, In order to answer this, I would like to reply with just one 'quote' which is experience & know what is happening on the chart. You ever realize trading a 5 minute chart with ticks & getting 10-20 pips in session is what banks do in order to liquidate market.

So, If you don't believe one thing which is how does the market move that much in 'Active' Trading hours. That is what banks and institutions been doing all the time. If they never participate in trading then Market might keep moving in another direction,unless and untill there are opposite orders & this happens everyday.

Now the Question Here Arise is :-

How does banks, institutions, hedge funds & other Financial Institutions trade

That's truly the reason to believe that how does large institutions, banks and other financial institutions trade & Why can't they trade against each other and try to be on top. Let's make one thing clear which is that they trade in one direction & never do participate at once as there are always one at the top & left clues on the chart where it would leave & when there is enough orders to liquidate and re-enter before continuation or reversals.

If you want to know how they do, then bookmark this post & keep looking everyday for next one month to see If there is something of 'Value', you get to know and we should start with a chart of Gbp/nzd & usd/chf today when U.S market close.

First of all, I would look into the Usd/chf Chart, where I will point out three back to back trading opportunity and forth one around these levels from 0.9870 -0.9950 & when this will happen, I would be first one to update the chart. All these opportunities were sell big time, either it was pending sell orders or retest with strong conviction & compression to revisit demand again.

First of all , look at the left shoulder Area, It could be Drop base really after engulf & Could be QM level special when a strong break followed by failed retest Level.

2. Whenever you see failed Retest level look to tighten your screws & always look for approach & lined up trade on any time frame.

3. Most Important point to note here is, It could be a strong historical level turned into Left Should of 'head & shoulder' family where Banks & institutions have pending orders before next move to the source or target.

4. Next level to watch out for is (If it is a Dbr after engulf, low of base level If at all there is a trick played there. Suppose if high or left of the shoulder is way to strong level to approach , If the move after break and retest is very strong, then probably base of that level is test with conviction and a new Flag is created below that level.

5. I would should you all these steps level by level & Surely that study is going to continue for months to come & You should not miss it as couple of months will entirely change the way you trade & way should be trading in the next months & years to come.

Price Action follows a structure of broken & Retest Approach which is a sign of Weakness or strength when Approached

Price Action only tell us who is king & who is dominating the market . Bulls or Bears who have the edge .

No one can ever tell prior to move that who will dominate the market but structure is one good predominant clue of what market is above to do when approach. e.g Price following a structure of broken support and retest in the following chart.

But when last support was broken , banks plays a trick of failed retest and create a panic area which is so called 'Left shoulder' as mark with the blue line.

Market created a random fakeout after testing and failed at previous demand but market does not have enough force to retest the broken level again. So, it create a flag Just below the left should and engulf the drop base rally with conviction which was good enough to look out for opportunity to sell again at the left shoulder.

This structure is the easiest piece of Pie you can ever have. Market found structures failed rallies, Drop base drop & Candlesticks Traps after one another. But only most of them fail but those which works does not move an point or two higher when exactly predicted.

Stay tuned for another Chart Example & probably this one would be a live Trade .

Top down Analysis in Forex. Weekly to h4 . How to draw top magic levels from higher to lower time frames.

Hi, Readers ! Last time I updated my chart with two classic examples of Touch Trades . Now I'm hereby want to show you method that will completely change the way you trade. Exactly, I still wonder why stairing at charts for hours don't bring in the results.

Answer being the Approach. Approach to levels & emotions that you bring in with trading mechanical systems or Intraday Scalping. Somehow, they don't work. Not work for me, atleast !

Let's not waste more time & get back to the real motive of putting this blogpost. I am posting the Gbp/nzd chart below, which tell you the real story behind "Trading Levels". Levels that can be traded from higher to lower time frames. Price do tend to give us clues before approaching such levels and its our responsibility to check the weekly charts once after the close of Trading week.

Points you need to follow here are :-

Strong Weekly momentum Candle that goes through the previous Resistance with strong push.

Failed to carry the momentum & then after few weeks we saw a break below & then price try to get back above the low & rejected and collapse.

Price Return to that level but with the cautious approach.

Look down the DAily & H4 Chart to see the reason.

Price does compressed to the level

Take a look at the Daily & h4 Chart below. This charts give us clues why we are quite sure of the rejection from that level we market on weekly Chart.

Only thing you must keep in mind is to set your stops & see above if there is any area where you can put your stops & Set the targets to the low levels of rejection. It could be Rally base rally on h4 chart to take the profits.

I've marked those zones on the chart which can help you take decision to set your stops and profit targets

Support Resistance Flips are most common way to trap Retail Traders

We can clearly see the h4 chart in which I've market the support/resistance flip before approaching to that weekly zone. One more thing to notice is that prior to visit that flip there was strong sell-off which take carries price to recent lows & then price start with little compression to approach that Area. again

Price Visit the area after the flip but there was still room for rise & that is exactly what happened when price visit the area again. but that approach was unable to push the price through the resistance and price stalls near those levels and I took the entry just around that S/R flip & put the stops just above the h1 supply & still in the trade.

Price Does Everything here.

STrong Sell-off followed by S/R Flip.

visit the Area of importance & clear the demand again & then revisit the area and got rejected.

Update on 08 september 2019

I was just going through the charts for weekly setups and found out the recent Price Action in USD/chf Chart. Price is very hesitate to go pass 0.9900 and every time it goes pass the line, steep fall was seen & this time its no different but this time I expect price to be bit more aggressive to 0.9950 level.

Chart speak louder than words & this usd/chf Chart screaming for sell-off

Sorry for not using the regular MT4 platform as my platform is going through upgrade and don't have access to the platform.

I've market the zone below as demand which for me is still a fakeout of the demand and if this area is not tested again , then I would see only one area of concern, that is 0.9950.

I would like to make you feel comfortable in coming weeks and months by being more eleborative & explain things on charts that will help you trade naked charts & levels & I can promise you that you won't be using any indicators or any other mechanical systems in trading at all.

You must take not of few things :-

Every Price Action is reaction of previous price patterns.

Price don't randomly fake Demand & supply zones

If you see an area which is protected earlier with wicks & then engulfed with force, then You must look to see the areas where you can enter again. It could be level above the recent zone or small base followed by drop.

Price Usually compressed to those zones & pick every demand created there on & finally fall is very strong and you need to be proactive in setting targets and trailing entries.

PRice Action zones in usd/jpy sell stop ordesr around 106.45 l stops around 107.32

Take a brief look at the chart & set pending orders with stops around 106.82

Hi, Readers ! There is an update to the above Trade usd/jpy which I mentioned yesterday. Take your time in reading and understanding why I decide to give a bit more to my recent trade of Usd/jpy. Its totally advised that You extend your risk based on your account equity & be decisive and flexible to your approach in your trading, otherwise this market can react anytime without any due reason.

I would like to update you on my recent setups of usd/jpy which I update yesterday. I still think the trade is of high probability but as we see immense liquidity in Asian session really give bulls an upper hand but rejection near the area of 106.78 is still quite demanding. Are we still over reacting to the recent rise and falls in japanese pairs. e.g Cad/jpy .

Canadian banks does not change in overall benchmark interest rate of 1.75% which strongly push Canadian dollars to recent lows after we make bundle of pips in our usd/cad pair. Take a look at the Chart here. I am still quite reluctant to what I post but the difference in the approach and setup is quite different from yesterday chart. I'm still looking for complete long term position in usd/jpy.

I would enter one more lot around 106.80 area & then put the stops around 107.32 & look to close first lot around 105.70 & let the rest trail around 106.00 area, & see if price would breach the recent lows of 104.45 & then I would target 102.50 area to close my second position.

Decisive approach in trading is only thing we need to watch out for

You all know, I always try to trade with the edge. So, where do I look for price Action is the nearest support and resistance and the approach and reaction towards those areas. Price has already react a lot to the broken support which in this case must be breached but the last reaction and recent price action of h4 candle which has just closed looking quite reluctant even though push is quite strong from the yesterday's close. If that is the case, then why didn't price manage to breach those levels.

Reason NO. 1 > NFP week. We do see usd/jpy pair react quite volatile to the release of Non-Farm-payroll & tomorrow is the day of NFP & direct relation with usd bond yields usd/jpy reaction to nearest support resistance is quite understandable. But why these areas are so strong that price do scare to react. Reason being Retail traders.

Retail traders put stop orders near those areas and price needs to have enough liquidity to take those orders and react. But even last rejection and order accumulation was quite strong to test the previous swing low which is strong rally and series or rejections tell everyone that there are bundle of stop sell orders just above the recent high and after taking out those sell orders. Price will continue to fall & that is the reason I see those orders around 107.20 area.

Price Action do collect lot of sell-buy orders as marked with blue lines & that is the reason why I always think of the reason behind those moves. Not enough liquidity is the first reason that come to my mind or pending release is the another . Ever Price Action area is a reaction of previous action. IF there is no earlier or clues of reaction price won't move and will going in one side & that is the reason why Forex market is one of the best market based on what you can look to adapt and transform your trading skills and be a professional . This really does not happen in stock market at all. Reason being the closing and opening gaps, overreaction to news & unless you are big Tech giants like Apple or Google. You share price will have an edge as compare to other stocks.

Concept of Trend Trading In Forex

I've put my whole hearted effort in spotting opportunities and present it amongst all my readers. In the below Post I would like to explain you the concept of trend trading and how you can spot opportunities like these. These type of opportunities are very high probability ones and if the below demand buckets are filled these rejection goes right to the next demand or supply level vice-e-versa.

Chart of Aud/cad speaks all in itself. Price got rejected. Either it CP'ed (compressed) to the previous broken support or faking out the demand before hitting supply & then travel right way through that demand for new move.

There are few points I would like to point out here which are

1. Price must have some sort of history prior to testing the broken level

2. Price must have pick all the opposite orders or compressed into the zone.

3. One high probability one is that broken support must have become the base specially if it is a strong one like Drop base drop and no panic buying at support.

4. If all the conditions are met and one is missing then you should look for QM level on smaller time frames and those QM's must become probable FTR. I would explain how to spot these type of opportunities in detail in coming days and weeks.

Stay well, trade well . See you on the other side of NFP release and TRade outcome will be updated on Monday.